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Lone Speed and Closers on Thursday and Friday.

A key component of the Bris Ultimate Past Performances is the Ultimate Race Summary. Using the Summary one can quickly find races in which the pace may have the potential to set up in the favor of a lone front runner, or even a lone closer.  A few examples can be found over the next two days at Arlington and Churchill.

Thursday, Arlington Race 5. A look at the Run Styles of the six runners entered in this mile and one sixteenth optional claimer it is seen that three are designated a "P" , two "E/P" and one "E". The lone "E" belongs to #6, Swiftbrookdancing who, with a high Early Speed Points of 6, is considered a strong front runner.  Further investigation reveals that Swiftbrookdancing's "E1" and "E2" figures are superior to any others in the race, suggesting he has the potential to secure his position in front in easy fashion. The Track Bias Stats in the Ultimate Past Performances indicate that early speed has been a valuable asset with 26% of the races at this distance during the meet being won in wire-to-wire fashion and, although Swiftbrookdancing has failed to last this distance in three previous tries, his morning line odds of 6/1 are tempting.

Thursday, Churchill Race 2. With a Run Style of "E7" #5, Veneti can be expected to set the pace in this mile and a sixteenth claiming event. Three other runners are designated as "EP" types but ranking top on both average and best  "E1" or "E2" figures, one might expect Veneti to make the front relatively easily and maintain the lead throughout.

Friday, Arlington Race 2. While there are three runners entered in this mile and a sixteenth claimer with Run Styles of "E/P" there is just one confirmed front runner, #1, All In Slew, that owns an "E". All In Slew's average and best early pace figures are the best in the field and he has drawn the favorable (23% win rate at this distance for the meet) inside rail post. While All In Slew has not raced for 153 days, he posted a recent bullet workout and looks a good bet to go wire-to-wire.

Friday, Churchill Race 4. This five furlong sprint scheduled for the turf has drawn a competitive field of nine with all but one of the entrants owning "E" or "E/P" Run Styles indicating that this will be a swiftly run race. The possibility of the race "falling apart" may play into the hands of the lone closer, # 6, Royal Terms. Although this will be her first attempt on the grass, Royal Terms has a decent turf pedigree and has shown the ability to close on synthetic surfaces. A large degree of racing luck is required to win from off the pace while sprinting on the turf by the morning line odds of 12/ 1 maybe worth the risk.

Friday, Churchill Race 9. In a very similar scenario to Royal Terms in Race 4, #2 Clear Cut looks to be the lone closer in this classy field of optional claimers, also going five furlongs on the grass. Also making her first turf start, Clear Cut has won on the Polytrack at Keeneland and Turfway and is saddled by the in-form Rusty Arnold.

Tim Holland 6-3-09