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Brisnet turf pedigree stats

Pedigree research is often a powerful tool to gain an edge in turf races. The statistics found in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances and on the American Produce Records CD-ROM can often identify horse that will adapt to the turf that a first look at the pedigree might not suggest. With some dryer weather than of late in store for the next few days the opportunity to look at some turf races is presented.

Thursday, Arlington Race 1. Saygoodnightgracie is a good example of a runner whose pedigree, being by the obscure sire Mocha Express and out a mare by the Kentucky Derby winner Lil E Tee, does not immediately spell turf pedigree. However, the Ultimate Past Performances reveal that runners by Mocha Express have won an astounding 23 percent of their races on the grass and Lil E Tee's turf runners have won at a better than average 14 percent. When Saygoodnightgracie made her turf debut last summer it was (judged by her odds of 15/1), but perhaps should not have been, a surprise when she finished second, beaten just a neck. With a strong grass record of two wins, a second and a third from four turf starts to date, Saygoodnightgracie will be the one to beat in this one mile and a sixteenth starter allowance.

Friday, Calder Race 5. The statistics in the Ultimate Past Performances can also be invaluable in identifying low priced runners that may be suspect in their turf debut. This may be the case with Master Tassel who will make his first grass start in this one mile claimer. Indeed, runners on the grass by Master Tassel's sire, Snuck In, and also his damsire, Real Courage, win at a poor rate of nine percent. 

 Friday, Churchill Race 4. Often it pays to excuse a runner's apparent poor showing when attempting a new surface. This might be the case with Westline who finished a well beaten sixth in her turf debut at Churchill at the start of the month and returns in this mile and a sixteenth allowance on the turf. Westline is by Gone West whose grass runners win at a rate of 14 percent and out of a mare by Storm Cat whose win at 17 percent. While the filly did not come close to winning her last start, her Bris Pace and Speed Ratings suggested improvement. She has worked well since that start and may be given another chance on the surface she is perhaps best bred for.

Thursday, Churchill Race 8. Kiawah's Magic ran a huge race to be second at odds of 21/1 in her first run on the turf on June 6th. By the decent grass sire Grand Slam, the four-year-old is out of a mare by Lord At War (Arg) who is an outstanding grass influence with his runners winning at a high rate of 20 percent. Further research via the American Produce Records reveals that Kiawah's Magic is a half-sister to Queen Ofthe Catsle who won five grass sprints in California including the Senator Ken Maddy H. (G3). Kiawah's Magic may have found her calling and could be the one to beat in this contentious five furlong optional claimer on the lawn.

Tim Holland 6-24-09.

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