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Daily Handicapping

«Saturday, March 28, 2009»

Analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 1
Analysis: 

#3 DELWOOD should benefit from the shorter stretch run today as he makes only his second start in claimer. #1 COSTNER was second best in his last and now drops in class off of only 8 days rest. #7 ETERNAL PURSUIT is another who should appreciate today’s distance and shorter stretch run.

Selection: 
3-1-7
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 2
Analysis: 

#4 LOOKING DUBAI races fresh with four works since her last race, as she makes only her second lifetime start after a solid 3rd at today’s same level and distance. #10 WAH MEI also races fresh and takes a 50% class drop for trainer Mark Casse. #5 RIVIERA CAFÉ goes maiden special weight to maiden claimer and goes turf to dirt for her third lifetime start.

Selection: 
4-10-5
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 3
Analysis: 

#12 T Z TOP doesn’t have the greatest post but is one of the few who has shown any ability on the turf which will be beneficial if we are able to get back on the grass after being rained off of Friday. #11 LUCKY ALEC is in for a tag and gets Robby Albarado aboard, both for the first time. #8 ELLE RAY DEW drops down and shortens up and should be ok no matter the surface.

Selection: 
12-11-8
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 4
Analysis: 

#2 DICTINA TOO has been a force over the FG turf this meet and could once again be a threat but we will have to wait and see what happened weather-wise as far a turf racing goes. #5 TALKIN INDIAN ran a game race last time out but her participation is probably hinging on Saturday’s forecast. #4 SWEET LEMONADE is obviously in the same boat but could be tough on the sprint to route angle today.

Selection: 
2-5-4
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 5
Analysis: 

#4 DANCING REBECCA is a perfect undefeated 4-4 and could be even stronger cutting back a half furlong today. #7 VERY SEXCESSFUL was second as the favorite in her last but since then worked an impressive bullet on March 14th, the best of 74 that day. #3 SAX APPEAL regularly shows up in state-bred stakes races, is pretty consistently in the money and also has to be considered off of her solid work pattern for leading trainer Steve Asmussen.

Selection: 
4-7-3
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 6
Analysis: 

#7 CEASERS MARCH has been disappointing this year but should appreciate today’s shorter distance and may also be a price today which is something rare with him. #8 IDE LIKE A DOUBLE has won 6 times out of 12 starts and although he hasn’t raced since August he’s been working well firing a sharp bullet on March 21st. #6 JOHN CHARLES is another win machine with 8 trips to the winner’s circle to show for his 16 lifetime starts.

Selection: 
7-8-6
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 7
Analysis: 

#2 TENSAS PALMYRA was 2nd in the Sarah’s Lanes Oates stakes and now gets back on the main track for her 4th lifetime start. Her dam, Xylophone, is also the dam of the multiple stakes winner, Tensas Yucatan. #8 WARRIOR MAID has won 3 out of her 4 starts and the Larry Jones trained LA bred seeks yet another today as she tries 1 1/16th for the first time with three solid works since her last win on February 7th. #7 MORNING MEMORY dominated in her first two races before faltering a bit at Delta. Some runners just simply don’t take to that particular track and if she is one of those then she could be a very live threat in here.

Selection: 
2-8-7
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 8
Analysis: 

#11 SMOOTHCIDEUP gets back on the main track after four grass races but has been effective over both surfaces and rarely runs a bad race; the concern is a possible lack of early pace with this particular group of runners. #3 LEESTOWN GIFT looks like he may end up on the front end by default and if he does could be out there trying to lead them as far as he can with John Jacinto back aboard and as he tries 1 1/16th for the first time. #6 REW’S BLUES goes turf to dirt and gets Robby Albarado back aboard.

Selection: 
11-3-6
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 9
Analysis: 

#2 CLASSY DEELITES has only been worse than 3rd once in his last 8 starts and once again appears to be the one to catch. #3 WILDRALLY gets back in with state-breds after a try against open company. #4 HALLWAY generally runs a game race and is one who should be ok no matter what our weather situation turns out to be on Saturday.

Selection: 
2-3-4
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 10
Analysis: 

#11 ROCK ‘N’ ROLL GAL ran a big race in her debut to be 2nd at 34-1 after breaking widest of all from post 11. #6 SMARTY MARTY ran a game race on the turf in her last but wasn’t as effective in NY over the main track last year so she may be one who needs the grass or maybe she is simply in better form now and will be ok either way. #9 SCHEFFLERA may actually be better off if we end up off the grass and although she has missed as the favorite in her last three races she has never missed a trifecta and she runs for the top combo of Asmussen/Bridgmohan.

Selection: 
11-6-9

Value Plays

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 3
Analysis: 

Continuing with my closing weekend promise to only push horses with double-digit morning line odds, let's kick off today with the all too appropriately named #1 ANTSY AND POOR. The 5-year-old gelding tries claimers for the first time after eight winless maiden special weight efforts. He's bound to fare better making that most significant drop and he gets the rail. This is a wide-open race so you might as well demand value on whoever you play. Antsy and Poor is 15-1 on the morning line.

Selection: 
$10 WP 1 ($20 total)
Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 4
Analysis: 

#6 GEEG finished more than 20 lengths back last time out, but that was going nine furlongs on the turf. We expect that today's race will be moved to the main track. Geeg ran well in an off-the-turf second level allowance at Keeneland in October, finishing fourth at 30-1. She's 12-1 on the morning line, although she probably won't be quite that high after scratches and once everyone handicaps for the mud.

Selection: 
$20 Win 6
Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
March 27, 2009
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 5
Analysis: 

#3 SAX APPEAL was the easy winner of a six-figure state-bred stakes at Delta last month, defeating today's favorite, Coach Mike, by 1 1/2. That was at five furlongs, but she's been competitive against Louisiana's top female sprinters at six furlongs, too. She likes this track, having hit the board in five of seven career starts here. It doesn't hurt that she comes from the barn of the world's top trainer. And yet, despite all that, she's 12-1 on the morning line, the second-longest shot in the race.

Selection: 
$10 WP 3 ($20 total)