Daily Handicapping

«Sunday, December 28, 2008»

Analysis

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 1
Analysis: 

#2 THAT’S SO FUNNY was a clear 2nd best after having the lead in the stretch in her last race. She makes her second start after a two month break and gets leading rider Cisco Torres aboard today. #7 ZEPHYR ICE will likely be heavily bet on the big red flag triple class drop as she makes her first FG start and marks the first runner from the Bob Holthus barn. She ran dead last in her most recent but did have a decent work over the FG track on December 21st. #9 MISS SAN LILLI has five in the money finishes this year to show for her twelve starts and making her third start off of a two month break could be one of the contenders today, although she can be rather inconsistent.

Selection: 
2-7-9

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 2
Analysis: 

#5 WICKED WIDOWMAKER ran fresh and on the class drop in his last two win handily while facing 7500N2L at today’s distance of 1 mile. He steps up into N3L today, but stays at the 7500 level and didn’t catch the toughest field today so two in a row is not unlikely. #12 LOUISIANA PLAYBOY hasn’t run since August but regularly races at this distance and could improve with Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard for the first time today. #2 HE’S A SLEWVESCENT looks for two in a row off of a N2L win in his last, but that was against open company and he now gets in with state-bred competition.

Selection: 
5-12-2

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 3
Analysis: 

#5 HOLY KAMOLI drops in class and goes route to sprint, which is a distance that probably suites her better. She’s had two works since her last race and could improve making her second start off of a layoff of almost a year. #7
GOANDLEAVEYOURMARK is also making her second start off of a lengthy layoff, her break being 6 months, and is another who could improve but she’s stepping up in class today. #9 HUT HUT ran 2nd against open company in her last start so now for her 2nd start off of a three month break, gets back in with LA state-breds.

Selection: 
5-7-9

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 4
Analysis: 

#6 LUCE PROSPECT is likely to be a huge price and may appear over matched here, but his race three starts back could win here and he had an absolutely terrible trip in his last race when he was bashed at the start, in traffic during the race, and closed off on the rail during the stretch when he kept gamely trying to get thru. #3 FLYING ZOMBO was 2nd best behind the game WO invader, Woodbourne, in his last start while facing allowance company. He now drops into a claimer and makes his 2nd start with the blinkers while still seeking his first start of the year. #4 INVISIBLE LEE drops out of allowance company today for trainer Mike Stidham, adds the blinkers and also races off of a nice bullet work on December 21st, the best of 66 at the 5 furlong distance.

Selection: 
6-3-4

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 5
Analysis: 

#5 LEROY’S MONEY was a game 2nd behind a much the best and heavily favored Gail Golden in her last start. She’s now 3rd off of a layoff and has been in good recent form. #2 SHARP BLUFFER takes the big red flag class plunge today in for a tag for the first time. She also goes turf to dirt and route to sprint so could improve off of that 10th place finish last time out. #10 STORM EVON also drops out of allowance company and also goes turf to dirt and route to sprint today, but in her case the drop isn’t as much of a red flag as she usually runs at about this level and last time out was actually a big step up for her.

Selection: 
5-2-10

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 6
Analysis: 

With rain forecast for Saturday night, turf may be debatable for Sunday which shouldn’t matter much to #12 SCHEFFLERA who was 2nd in her debut behind Leigh McLovin who went on to win the Letellier Memorial. #4 ALEXANDRIA J is another who should be ok either way. She makes her 2nd lifetime start for trainer Larry Jones who wins with 25% of his 2nd time starters and gets first time lasix, par for the course for Jones, after a 3rd place effort in her debut over a regular dirt track. #6 EIGHTONINEBELL was well backed in her debut, being by Mizzen Mast and running over the turf, but ended up 5th after a wide draw. The 2nd place finisher in that race, Tears of Jupiter, returned to win impressively in her next start.

Selection: 
12-4-6

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 7
Analysis: 

#3 P. S. U. GRAD makes her first start since coming over from SoCal and sometimes those runners perform better making their 2nd Louisiana start, but she is in the Steve Asmussen barn and has been working well at EvT since the beginning of December. She’s been running well over the California synthetics, but notice that her two lifetime wins were when she was able to run over regular dirt, once at the Fairplex and once at Bay Meadows. #1 MORNING RIDGE was on a major win streak landing in the winner’s circle 4 times in a row before running 3rd in a stakes race in her most recent start. She’s been given a rest, and now will be running fresh off of an almost 4 month break. #4 MARIA VICTORIA also looks like she may be one who prefers the regular dirt and has to be considered dangerous running for Cody Autrey with Jaime Theriot aboard. She had a good work on December 17th, but landed in a tough spot here.

Selection: 
3-1-4

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 8
Analysis: 

#11 GENTLEMAN CHESTER has solid valid excuses for his last three races, including wide trips and traffic. He was pointed to the Buddy Diliberto Memorial, run here on November 28th, but that race was rained off of the turf course. He’s had steady works since then and gets Robby Albarado aboard today. #2 MASTER MIZZEN is one of those reliable runners that seem to never turn in a bad performance. He’s a turf route specialist who has run well over this course before with a series of near misses last season when facing ultra tough competition. #5 UNPAID CRUSADE ran gamely in his last to end up 3rd behind the much the best wire to wire winner Myboycharlie. He likes to win as evidenced by his 13-4-3-1 record. If we happen to get rained off of the turf, keep and eye on #12 ANTRIM COUNTY who could be dangerous either way, but will more than likely stay in the race on the main track while the other’s are debatable.

Selection: 
11-2-5

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 9
Analysis: 

With the 1 mile distance being a concern for some of these #6 AWESOME AMAZON may have a bit of an edge as she does normally run in route races but the catch is that she usually runs over the grass course. #2 SARAH’S BEST DAY made her first start off of a three month layoff in a sprint where she flashed speed and faded. She could improve making her 2nd start off of that break on the stretch out today. #3 SISTER TICKET hasn’t run since September at LAD but has been working well for trainer Andy Leggio Jr. who wins with about 30% of his horses returning from layoffs.

Selection: 
6-2-3

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 10
Analysis: 

#7 THE MAD ARTIST didn’t run too badly last time out just kind of evenly in a maiden special weigh on the turf. He now takes the big class drop down to 12,500 but had a good sharp work on December 20th, the 4th best of 74, and keeps rider Kerwin Clark who had a riding double on Saturday. #8 STRAIGHT SHOOTER has been racing at about
this level but his last two races were tougher than this one came up. He wants to be on the front end and although he battled early in both of his last he just couldn’t quite get the lead, today may be a different story. #12 HALF BLUE has the appearance of a runner who doesn’t want to win with his 11 in the money finishes, including nine 2nd places, but he’s useful in exactas and trifectas and may win one of these days.

Selection: 
7-8-12

Value Plays

Value Play

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 2
Analysis: 

#2 HE'S A SLEWVESCENT posted a nice win in his most recent effort, against open company. He also finished third two starts back on a sloppy track, which we might see today. While the morning line favorite did get the best of our choice when they last met, Slewvescent was wheeling back in 12 days for that start off an abysmal effort in a tough spot opening weekend. We will see something closer to his best today, which bodes well for his chances against this suspect field.

Selection: 
$1 exactas 2 w/ 1,3,5,6,12,13 and 1,3,5,6,12,13 w/ 2 ($12 total)

Value Play

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 5
Analysis: 

Up until today, I have only used horses in my Value Plays that were one of my top picks on the Black Gold tip sheet (available on track where programs are sold). It seemed important that there be consistency between the two so that people knew I was only touting horses I had the utmost confidence in. However, I've reconsidered this rule as it's become increasingly difficult to find great value while choosing only from the horses I thought were the most likely winners in each race. The Value Plays, from here on out, will be the horses that offer the best value, even if there are others we think are more likely winners. The tip sheet is about picking winners, whereas these Value Plays are about finding the best plays and making money. In this race we had the #2 on top, but for the best value we're recommending #5 LEROY'S MONEY. She was no match for the winner in her last, but raced wide throughout. Today she picks up Robby in a wide-open race that makes her very playable at 8-1 on the morning line.

Selection: 
$1 exactas 5 w/ 1,2,4,8,9 and 1,2,4,8,9 w/ 5 ($10 total)

Value Play

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 27, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 8
Analysis: 

#12 ANTRIM COUNTY has hit the board in five of six lifetime starts over a wet track, as we will likely have today. He's won four consecutive races, including two in a row since joining the Calhoun barn. He has answered the call time and again this year, posting nine of his 11 career wins in 2008. He doesn't even show a single off-the-board finish in the 10 lines that appear on the past performances. This is a horse you can count on to run his race, which makes him a good key in the exotics, especially if the morning line estimate of 8-1 is accurate.

Selection: 
$1 exactas 12 w/ 2,3,5,6,7,9,13 and 2,3,5,6,7,9,13 w/12 ($14 total)