Daily Handicapping

«Saturday, December 27, 2008»

Analysis

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 1
Analysis: 

#12 ESS EL YOU was DQ’d off of a winning run in her last race. She and the runner who got moved up for the win were a good five lengths clear of the rest of the field. Regression is a concern, but she’s had about a month between races so should be ok today. #7STRIKE HAPPY looked home free in her last run before getting caught late by a much the best winner. She make her 2nd start off of a 4 month layoff and cuts back in distance from 6 furlongs to 5 ½ today. #5 DOC’S CLASSIC has been running evenly lately and is another contender in here but was well beaten in her last start by ESS EL YOU.

Selection: 
12-7-5

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 2
Analysis: 

#5 ESPOOF missed as the favorite in his last race but that was a non-conditioned claimer and now he gets in with N2Y for his 3rd start off of a 6 month layoff. #7 PREMIER DANCE hasn’t run since February and has no wins on the year, but has been working well firing bullets in the morning for trainer Cody Autrey. #11 SMOKE WARNING gets into a claiming race with conditions for the first time this year and although this will be his 5th consecutive class drop, he fits in this field off of his last couple of 4th place finishes at CD against tougher.

Selection: 
5-7-11

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 3
Analysis: 

#5 POCKET HANK has the look of a live first time starter, racing for Mike Stidham who wins with about 20% of his first time starters. He’s been working forwardly in the mornings, gets James Graham aboard and is well bred for the turf. #6 PACIFIC STAR is another live looking first timer in here. He was entered in a race carded for these same conditions on November 29th that was run over the main track due to the weather. He scratched out of that race and has since had four works including a 6 furlong work on December 15th. #8 PERSIAN has the experience edge in here as he makes his 7th lifetime start and tries the grass for the first time after a series of 3rd place finishes over the main track at CD and Saratoga.

Selection: 
5-6-8

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 4
Analysis: 

#8 TENSAS PALMYRA goes for the déjà vu angle as she is out of the same dam that produced the multiple stakes winning Tensas Yucatan who is also trained by Morris Nicks and who was ridden to a dominating win in her debut by Robby Albarado in January 2007 over the FG track. #7 EVERY DAY COUNTS has three 2nd place finishes to show for her 5 starts, so looks due for a win today making her 2nd start of the FG meet for trainer Steve Asmussen. #9 CURLEY KIM was only beaten 5 lengths after a wide trip when breaking from post 11 in her last race. She’s had two good works since then, including a bullet on December 13th, and she makes only her third lifetime start today so has plenty of room for improvement.

Selection: 
8-7-9

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 5
Analysis: 

#3 PRETTY PERSUASION normally runs a pretty game race and can be forgiven for her last place finish in her last start as she was totally taken out of her game when she ended up on the lead by default in a paceless race where nobody wanted to go to the front end. #5 HIGH DRAW was claimed out of a race at this same 30kN2L three starts back and after a couple of tries against tougher allowance company drops right back down. She had issues at the start in both of her two recent races so the addition of blinkers could help her get out a bit cleaner. #11 MARTIN’S BAY came off of a year long layoff to run 2nd in a main track sprint on November 28th. Now, for her 2nd start off of that long break she stretches out on the grass, something that may suit her better.

Selection: 
3-5-11

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 6
Analysis: 

#4 PINPOINT is the Cody Autrey class dropper in the field and he does look dangerous at this 15k level after a 5th place finish against 25k competition but before that he did win as the favorite against a group of 16k claimers. He comes in from CD and that form has been holding up well this meet. #2 ADMIRAL HALSEY runs for trainer Tom Amoss and gets James Graham aboard as he steps up in class off of a win. He’s been in good form this year with 8 trifecta finishes to show for his 12 starts this year. #3 SWEETENING makes his 2nd start of the meet after a 3rd place finish at this level in his last start at 15-1. He was scratched out of a race on December 12th that was carded for the turf and although he was entered MTO and that race was indeed taken off of the turf, it came up pretty tough so he scratched out to run here in this easier spot.

Selection: 
4-2-3

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 7
Analysis: 

#1 ATTICUS KRISTY races off of a good win at CD sprinting over that turf course. He seeks two in a row today, has been working well, gets current hot rider Brian Hernandez Jr aboard. #2 PROBABTION READY is 3rd off of a layoff and comes down from WO today to get back on the grass after a couple of polytrack races. He gets James Graham up today and he’s another who has been working well in the morning. #7 NATURAL SPEED has been lightly raced this year with only one start since March in a tough allowance optional claimer at Keenland this October. Last time we saw him sprint over the FG turf was this past February when he was 3rd behind Euroears in the Colonel Power stakes.

Selection: 
1-2-7

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 8
Analysis: 

#4 BADGER BARRY may be overlooked in this deep field but could be dangerous with his 5 exacta finishes to show for his 7 starts this year. He also cuts back in distance after three 7 furlong races and runs for trainer Greg Foley and rider Miguel Mena who teamed up for a win on Friday’s program. #5 GEORGE’S CIGAR made only his third lifetime start and his second of the year in the Thanksgiving Handicap that was won impressively by Sok Sok, last year’s Sugar Bowl winner. He’s has three good works since then and gets Robby Albarado aboard today. #10 CASH MCCOOL only has one win this year but hits the board more often than not and is racing fresh off of the Cody Autrey claim.

Selection: 
4-5-10

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 9
Race Name: 
The Furl Sail Handicap
Analysis: 

This year’s edition of the Furl Sail couldn’t have come up tougher. Fourteen fillies and mares line up in the starting gate, each one with a chance to win. #8 BARBETTE is overdue and will likely be a big price. She’s was gaining well in her last two races, but both times started her move too late. She is versatile and could be sitting on a big one today as she makes her third start of the meet and keeps her rider Eddie Martin Jr., who has now had two races to figure her out. #13 SHYTOE LAFEET was 3rd in this race last year at generous odds of 22-1. She is one of those solid runners who can usually be counted on to give a good account of herself and she had a great prep for this race winning an allowance race here over the course on December 4th. #5 YOU DANCING DEVIL was 2nd in that same prep race, behind SHYTOE LAFEET, is another who normally runs well and will be given every chance under her regular rider James Graham.

Selection: 
8-13-5

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 10
Analysis: 

#12 HEART ASHLEY didn’t fare too well in the draw for post positions in this race, but has run two games races with a 2nd and most recently a strong 4 ½ length win in a maiden special weight at CD, both time running at the 7 furlong distance. She now goes 6 furlongs for her first start of the meet for the Asmussen/Bridgomhan combo. #9
ON THE MENU is a strong contender from the Larry Jones barn. She won a special weight in her debut and then tried a G2 at Belmont. She now makes her first start over the FG track and only her 3rd lifetime start and races here off of a 5 furlong bullet, the best of 54, on December 15th. #7 HOW FAR IS HEAVEN makes her 3rd lifetime start today and has the same race pattern as ON THE MENU with a debut win followed up with a stakes try. HOW FAR IS HEAVEN comes down from WO and will be running over the dirt for the first time today with Jesse Campbell aboard for trainer Mark Casse.

Selection: 
12-9-7

Value Plays

Value Play

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 2
Analysis: 

#7 PREMIER DANCE ran well in a pair of races at Oaklawn Park in the spring. Although he's been off for a while he shows a pair of bullet works indicating he's sharp for the return. The Autrey barn brings horses back from extended layoffs to win all the time. We'll be surprised if the gates open with him anywhere near the 6-1 morning line, but if it does happen we'll be ready to pound it.

Selection: 
$10 WP 7 ($20 total)

Value Play

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 5
Analysis: 

Since breaking her maiden, #9 DICTINA TOO has fared much better on turf. She was a close third in a one-mile entry-level allowance at Kentucky Downs despite traffic issues. That was the second time she nearly cleared this level, as she also finished second in a turf sprint at Churchill in June. The dirt efforts have not been as strong, but unless the race is washed off the inner course, who really cares about her main track form? A race similar to what she has already proven capable of on the grass would be enough to get the job done against this bunch. She is the third choice on the morning line at 5-1.

Selection: 
$1 exactas 9 w/ 1,2,3,4,5,8,10,11 and 1,2,3,4,5,8,10,11 w/ 9 ($16 total)

Value Play

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 26, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 8
Analysis: 

#6 DEEP CANYON had the lead up until the final strides of his last race, under these conditions a few weeks back. That was his first start since August, so he could very well come back stronger and more fit with that effort under his belt. The morning line favorite is especially susceptible having been off since January. It is not unusual to see precocious horses that don’t come back quite as dominant simply because others of their generation mature and have caught up by this point. We will try to hook up our top pick with a few longshots in the exacta pool and hope that Mad Flatter isn’t at his best or that his best isn’t enough.

Selection: 
$1 exactas 6 w/ 2,3,4,5,9,10 and 2,3,4,5,9,10 w/ 6 ($12 total)