Daily Handicapping

«Friday, December 26, 2008»

Analysis

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 1
Analysis: 

#2 UPTOWN SEATTLE is a second time starter who could improve on the stretch out as he was closing nicely in his 6 furlong debut. Also, this field came up quite a bit lighter than the one he first faced. #3 KOKOMO BEACH is one of only two first time starters in this full field of twelve, but the ones who have run haven’t shown much yet, so he has more upside than most of the others and has the automatic plus of hailing from the Asmussen barn. #7 DANCINFROMTHEGITGO is on the triple class drop after a 6th place finish in his most recent race where he raced against maiden claimers for the first time after four special weight races. That was a rather tough 25k maiden claimer that he landed in, with a runaway winner, so he could improve at this level.

Selection: 
2-3-7

Daily Analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 2
Analysis: 

#1 LA COWBOY could not have found more traffic trouble in his last start when he missed at the favorite, he’s in good current form and the cut back in distance should help him today. #7 PELTO has been steadily dropping in class, and now drops yet again, but is third off of a layoff and with his improvement in each start, this could be his spot. #6 BAD BOY AIDAN steps up off of his N2L win, but that win was dominant and he didn’t catch the sharpest field today. He wouldn’t be a surprise for two in a row after his 7 length win last time out.

Selection: 
1-7-6

Daily analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 3
Analysis: 

#2 JAYELA is eligible to improve and may go overlooked. Two starts back she had the lead turning for home in a tougher open company race at LAD before getting passed in the stretch and more recently she chased a hot pace in a turf route, which likely isn’t her thing anyway. She runs well fresh and is now making her 1st start off of a two month break as she gets back into a dirt sprint against La bred competition. #5 PUNISH WORK races off of a win, has been in good form since dropping into claimers this past July and keeps leading rider Cisco Torres aboard. #10 SUSPISION drops in class after an even effort against a particularly tough field of 12,500 claimers last time out so could improve in this spot but would be easier to like with a better post draw.

Selection: 
2-5-10

Daily Analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 4
Analysis: 

#9 MR. R.B.I. has quite a bit going for him as he makes his debut run. Trainer Al Stall Jr. wins with over 20% of his first time starters, he’s worked plenty of bullets and near bullets, and his sire, Run Production, is starting to make a name for himself and has so far been quite successful with his progeny. #7 SCATINEASYCAT makes his 4th lifetime start but his first against maidens. He loses the blinkers and runs fresh today. #2 TAKE A DAY makes his 3rd lifetime start, hasn’t run a bad race yet and now makes his 2nd start with lasix after a solid effort in his last where he ended up 3rd at 10-1 while facing a full field of twelve.

Selection: 
9-7-2

Daily Analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 5
Analysis: 

#3 CHARMIN ASSASSIN only had a couple of races in Florida at the beginning of the year when he was with Bill Mott. He now makes his first start for trainer Steve Asmussen as he gets on the grass for the first time. He’s working forwardly with a bullet on December 6th. #6 MACHINE IN MOTION is another unknown, seeing as he hasn’t run since 2007. He also gets on the grass for the first time and he’s been working well also firing bullets on a regular basis for trainer Bret Calhoun. #7 WHACKA WHACKA was a solid 3rd in his last and appears to be a proficient turf sprinter but he likes to go to the front and will likely face quite a bit of pace pressure today.

Selection: 
3-6-7

Daily Analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 6
Analysis: 

#7 ZENATO is one who never runs a bad race and after troubled trip in a stakes race, the Starter Handicap on Champions Day, where he was involved in an eventually dismissed inquiry, he looks like the one to beat back in a straight starter allowance. #2 GLENLEARY has been finishing 2nd and 3rd more than he has been winning so far this year, but he figures in here and note that he was claimed back by trainer/owner Steve Asmussen. #1 WILD DINNER PARTY will more than likely do his usual - go to the front and hold in as long as he can, and while he will have tough runners like ZENATO tracking him closely, he is usually game and could hold in for a piece.

Selection: 
7-2-1

Daily Analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 7
Analysis: 

#4 WILD SUNDAY dropped into a claimer for the first time in his last race where he did miss as the favorite, but that was not an average field of 35k claimers. It was extremely tough and filled with back class and past stakes winners, so here against 30kN3L claimers he should fare a bit better. #12 SULTRY APPROVAL gets back on the grass after some WO polytrack races, and may go overlooked in this competitive field. Expect him to get a good trip from Jesus Castanon today as he also gets in with N3L after a tougher non-conditioned claimer in his last start. #9 BIG WIG has to be considered live and dangerous as the Cody Autrey class dropper in the field. He was claimed away from Todd Pletcher for 35k three starts back by sharp claiming trainer John Fahey the 3rd, and now after a couple of allowance races he drops back in for a tag.

Selection: 
4-12-9

Daily Analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 8
Analysis: 

#4 NAKIKA just ran a way with a maiden special weight race as the favorite and while it may seem like a lot to ask for her to get two in a row, she won her last pretty easily, didn’t catch the sharpest field today, and also looks like the one to catch again. #3 LYNN CARA LASSIE was a bit disappointing in her last start, finishing 6th at 2-1, but she could improve today as she makes her 2nd start off of a 6 month layoff. #6 LITTLE SPRINGER is third off of a three month layoff today, and is another live contender off of a dead heat 2nd place in her last start at today’s level and distance.

Selection: 
4-3-6

Daily Analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 9
Analysis: 

#1 GANGBUSTER landed in a good spot here. This is a good distance for him and he will likely be overlooked in the wagering. He scratched out of the Woodchopper on the 20th, had a work on that day instead and turns up in this allowance optional claimer. #6 GET RICH QUICK makes his first start of the meet since coming down from WO. He’s been working well and has run some good races over the FG turf course over the past couple of years. He’s lightly raced and is another who figures to offer some solid value as he lands in this 1 1/16th turf race, which is what he does best, after some races that weren’t his ideal as far as distance and surface are concerned. #9 COBRADOR makes his first start of the FG meet after a couple of claiming races at Aqueduct. He ran a couple of decent races here last year before traveling to Keenland and Woodbine before his New York races. He couldn’t have been more dominating while winning a 35kN3L in his last and now steps back up in class for trainer Steve Asmussen.

Selection: 
1-6-9

Daily Analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 10
Analysis: 

#2 WAY TOO HIGH drops in class and gets around two turns after a couple of sprint races against special weight company. She didn’t do much in her last race but that race was tough as the winner, Leigh McLovin, returned to win the Letellier Memorial in her very next start. #9 DANCE WITH DADDY looks well spotted by new trainer Steve Margolis in this 25k maiden claimer after a couple of 50k maiden claimers at Keenland and one race against winners while going long on the grass. She’s now back in with other maidens and will be trying the regular dirt for the first time with leading rider Cisco Torres aboard. #6 MONTEREY STREET is one of two David Carroll trained runners in here, both making only their 2nd start since November at CD and both dropping in class after a race against special weight company. Neither did much in their debut race, but Carroll trained 2nd timers generally fare better than his 2nd time starters. Either seems capable of improvement, the other being #5 WYNCREEK, but Corey Lanerie who was aboard both stays with MONTEREY STREET and she has been working a tad better than her stablemate WYNCREEK. Still, either one could step up today.

Selection: 
2-9-6

Value Plays

Value Play

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 1
Analysis: 

#2 UPTOWN SEATTLE had a very useful debut, finishing third despite a poor trip. The experience should serve him well today. The first problem in his last was a bad break. Some young horses benefit from having gone through the starting process once before, whereas others repeat the same experience over and over and always have troubled starts. If this one gets away better this time, that makes him a contender right there. He also had traffic trouble in the debut, but sill held on for third, behind a next-out winner. Against a soft field such as this a similar effort with better racing luck puts Uptown Seattle right there, and he's a solid 9-2 on the morning line.

Selection: 
$5 exacta box 2-3 ($10 total)

Value Play

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 7
Analysis: 

#4 WILD SUNDAY was right there at the finish of two second-level allowance races in Chicago, then followed that with a third against open $35,000 claimers. Although he didn't deliver as the favorite last time, he finished behind Middleweight, who came back to win in his next start. This horse runs his race every time, which we expect to be enough in this somewhat easier spot.

Selection: 
$2 exactas 4 w/ 1,2,6,12,13 ($10 total)

Value Play

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 25, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 10
Analysis: 

#9 DANCE WITH DADDY races on dirt for the first time, but takes a big drop into a $25k maiden claimer. Last time, for whatever reason, she took on winners in a $40k claimer and managed a solid fifth. This will be a much easier spot, and it should help that she moves to a far more successful barn. She's the second choice on the morning line at 7-2, which isn't a huge price, but certainly offers value if you believe she would be playable at 2-1 or 5-2, which we do.

Selection: 
$10 WP 9 ($20 total)