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Daily Handicapping

«Monday, December 22, 2008»

Analysis

Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 1
Analysis: 

#5 CAREFREE JIM hasn’t been worse than 3rd since May of 2007. Although he’s been lightly raced this year he’s been holding his form and now makes his 1st FG start for trainer Keith Bourgeois after a win at 1 ¼ at Delta in his last start. #4 LAKE G P also runs here off of a win, his coming at LAD on October 10th. He races fresh here and makes his first start for new trainer Sam Breaux. #9 TEE’S BEST MAN is another who races here off of a win and he also starts for a new barn. He was claimed out of his last start at Hoosier Park where he dominated a field of 5kN3L claimers by 10 lengths.

Selection: 
5-4-9
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 2
Analysis: 

There is a load of early speed in here, so a closer like #5 RACHELSFINESTHOUR could get the perfect set-up. She looks due racing here third off of a layoff and off of a pair of 2nd place finishes. #2 SMITTY’S SHINE missed as the mild favorite in her last, but has had a good 4 furlong work since that effort and could improve making her 2nd start of the meet. #4 HALO’S BANDIT also missed as the favorite in her last start and also could improve making her 2nd start of the meet and also her 2nd start off of a 7 month layoff.

Selection: 
5-2-4
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 3
Analysis: 

#5 SUGAR PUSH drops into a maiden claimer for the first time after three special weight races for trainer Steve Asmussen. She hasn’t run since opening weekend and isn’t showing any works since then, but she’s run evenly and most of the rest of these have been competing at this maiden claiming level so she does have the class edge. #11 FOOLISH CHIP is one of only two runners entered in here who has actually been today’s distance which may give here a bit of an edge in this field of mainly stretcher-outers. #9 JENNA’S NO ANGEL makes her 3rd lifetime start for trainer Sam Breaux and stretches out for the first time after a couple of sprint races.

Selection: 
5-11-9
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 4
Analysis: 

#4 LIGHTHOUSE PRIDE ran some big races over the AP turf course despite dealing with traffic trouble in just about every race. He’s shown versatility, is overdue for a win and trainer Greg Geier has been off to a good start here at the FG so far. #5 RAINBOW’S ARCH is another overdue runner who was racing over the AP turf course this year. He’s never really run a bad race over the turf and is out of the same dam, Cloudy Spot, who produced the champion turf router, Cloudy’s Knight. #2 HOLY HUMOR was entered in a turf race on opening day that ended up being run over a sloppy track due to the weather. He’s been working well and regularly since then and could improve today although his turf form is not as solid as the other two since he ran last in his one and only grass race over the CD turf.

Selection: 
4-5-2
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 5
Analysis: 

#2 BRANDON’S TROPHY has a shot here and possibly at a price. He’s 0-8 this year but he’s been in the money 50% of the time and cuts back into in a sprint after a couple of mile races. #10 NEVADA ERLTON ran a game 2nd last time out while making his first start off of an 8 month layoff. Off of that good performance, he takes a step up in class today. #6 HUFFY RUDY ran 3rd behind NEVADA ERLTON in his last race and is another with a shot today. He had the lead in the stretch in that full field of 12 after being part of the early pace.

Selection: 
2-10-6
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 6
Analysis: 

#4 MEANDYOUBABE runs her best races over the turf course and last time just missed by a head at 13-1 after a breaking from post 11. She has a better draw today and keeps leading rider Cisco Torres. #1 PAINTED COLORS hasn’t run since the AP meet. She tried a couple of turf routes in her last two starts, but before those ran a good 5th in an ultra competitive 5 furlong turf sprint. #2 SWEET LEMONADE is the mystery horse in here with a bunch of new stuff going on today. First time for trainer Bret Calhoun, first race since January, first race outside of SoCal, and first sprint race but she is in good hands and worked a quick bullet from the gate on December 14th, the 2nd best of 146 at the 4 furlong distance.

Selection: 
4-1-2
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 7
Analysis: 

#5 SLEEVE is a 2nd time starter who goes maiden special weight to maiden claiming today after running evenly behind Uno Mas in his first race and runs off of a sharp 5 furlong gate work on December 13th. #10 LUCIUS VORENUS makes his first FG start after three polytrack races at WO. He’s been running pretty evenly and today gets Jesse Campbell aboard for trainer Mark Casse as he tries the dirt for the first time. #2 POMEGRANATE is a 2nd time starter for trainer Steve Asmussen stretching out after a sprint over a sloppy track is his debut at this same level. Considering his connections he can’t be left out, but he does a face a tough field of mainly class droppers in here.

Selection: 
5-10-2
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 8
Analysis: 

#10 MCCMULLEN usually runs a game race when routing over the grass and she might be a decent price in here. She runs fresh off of a three month break and that is more often than not a positive angle with her. #12 OH BABY OH BABY OH hasn’t run since July, but has quite a few things about her to like. Her two grass route races were her best races and when she ran 3rd at LAD in the Little Treasure she was beaten by Love to Tell who went on the win the Pago Hop here on December 6th. Also, she gets leading rider Cisco Torres aboard for her comeback race. #1 SNOW DELICIOUS could be tough. She makes her first start since WO, her first start for trainer Tom Amoss – a 30% angle, and she gets the turf master James Graham aboard for the first time.

Selection: 
10-12-1
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 9
Analysis: 

#2 SUPER RIDE was overlooked at this same level and distance in his last start when he ended up 3rd at 23-1. He probably won’t go as overlooked today with Corey Lanerie riding back for trainer Sweet Hodges. #8 IN THE FORECAST ran 2nd as the favorite in the same race that SUPER RIDE exits. He could be tough while making his 2nd start since coming over from SoCal as those runners generally need a race before they fire their best shot. #9 VICAR OF LA gets the mystery horse label. He was highly regarded here last season, but after a poor showing in a stakes race at Delta was sent to the sidelines for almost 11 months. He’s been working sharply and gets the meet’s leading rider up.

Selection: 
2-8-9
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 10
Analysis: 

#2 FLAMING SLEW comes into this race in good form with a 2nd place finish and a win over the CD turf course, both times at 1 1/8th. She cuts back in distance to a mile today for her first FG start and races off of a sharp four furlong work on December 15th -the 2nd best of 102. #5 SWEETNESS’N LIGHT has only missed the exacta one time in 8 lifetime starts. The concern is that that one miss was in her lone turf race, but it wasn’t bad terrible though as she ended up 4th in a tough field on that day. #8 DIVERSE figures to takes a lot of action as the Neil Howard/Robby Albarado runner in the field. She, like FLAMING SLEW, races off of a win over the CD turf course and she also races off of a sharp work, in her case a bullet 3 furlongs.

Selection: 
2-5-8
Handicapper: 
jessicap
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Analysis
Race Number: 
Race 11
Analysis: 

#7 BIENHEURUEX was a game 2nd to a much the best and heavily favored Time For Etbauer in her last start. Time For Etbauer was on the Cody Autrey class drop and was claimed out of the race to run 2nd on Sunday on a class raise for her new connections. #5 GOLDEN POLICY races first off of the Tom Amoss claim, a solid 30% angle, and she’s been in good form all year, with the exception of her last race. She finished last in that race, but does have the traffic trouble excuse. #2 GOLD CLASSIC makes her 3rd start of the meet, but has been running well, improving with each start and gets Jaime Theriot aboard for the first time today.

Selection: 
7-5-2

Value Plays

Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 4
Analysis: 

#4 LIGHTHOUSE PRIDE missed by a nose in a turf MSW at Hawthorne in October. He's not been able to graduate from this level, but his last two over turf were both encouraging. Fillies from the Asmussen, Amoss and Mott barns are sure to take some money, as those names always do, but none of their entrants stand out as clear favorites. In a field with so many who have yet to prove they belong in a MSW, we will take a square price on the filly that may have turned a corner this fall for a trainer who is better than his '08 stats reflect.

Selection: 
$5 WP 4
Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 7
Analysis: 

#5 SLEEVE ran a well-beaten fifth in his stakes debut. He was nine lengths behind the winner, Uno Mas, who has proven to be one of the top juvenile prospects on the grounds. That one won by more than four lengths, though, so Sleeve ran a solid race relative to the rest of that MSW field. The son of Ten Most Wanted should benefit not only from the drop into the claiming ranks, but also from the added distance. The meet's leading rider sees fit to climb aboard, which we always take as a positive sign.

Selection: 
$1 exactas 7 w/ 1,2,3,4,8,9,10 and 1,2,3,4,8,9,10 w/ 7 ($14 total)
Handicapper: 
jimm
Race Date: 
December 21, 2008
Selection Type: 
Value Plays
Race Number: 
Race 10
Analysis: 

#6 SHARBAT raced 12 furlongs in her last effort, a race so far it bears little resemblance to today's contest that we will not even consider it a factor in our handicapping. Prior to that, in her last effort at one mile, she ran a solid sixth in a $50k stakes at Kentucky Downs off a very long layoff. The Fair Grounds turf course is the sight of her biggest win ans she should now be fit to show us her best race. The question, looking at those long gaps between races earlier this year, is whether she had some issues along the way that could keep her from realizing the promise she showed here in February. Those are the chances we take and we'd rather be on board now at 10-1 when there are questions surrounding her than wait to see one and not get the value next time.

Selection: 
$1 exactas 3 w/ 1,2,4,7,8,9,12 and 1,2,4,7,8,9,12 w/ 3 ($14 total)