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Weekend recap and Tuesday preview for Churchill.
Churchill enjoyed beautiful spring weather for their opening weekend of racing with seven of the twenty-one races (33 percent) being won by favorites. The main track was fast both days and, while speed was advantageous, horses on the inside appeared to be at a disadvantage. On the turf early pace was also an asset.
Calder's also enjoyed fine weather for the first three days of the meet with a fast main track and firm turf. 39 percent of the 33 races were won by favorites with no biases discernable.
Tuesday's featured ninth race at Churchill Downs is an allowance for three-year-olds and up, scheduled to be run at one mile on the turf. A look at the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances reveals the Mike Maker trained Broad River as top ranked on the BRIS Prime Power Ratings. He has been running against decent company in Florida and can utilize his good stalking running style. With rain in the forecast this race could be transferred to the main track which could be to the advantage of the main track only entrant, Maltese Dog. As well as owning good early speed and a decent outside post, Maltese Dog has the highest last race speed rating and his trainer, Carl Bowman, wins at 21 percent with horses making their third start off a layoff.
The most contentious race of Tueday's card at Churchill looks to be race 8, a competitive one mile claimer on the main track for three-year-olds and upwards. A winner of one of two previous starts here, Credit Only is the more than four point Prime Power leader despite taking a rise in class off a win at Fair Grounds. As seen in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances Race Summary Credit Only also ranks top in the Speed Last Race, Average Class Last 3 and Early Pace Last Race categories, but may still offer value being 5/1 in the morning line.
Others with a chance in race 8 include Constabulary (second highest ranked Prime Power) who owns the best Late Pace Last Race figure, takes a drop in class and whose trainer, Bill Mott wins with 22 percent of runners entered in claiming races. Third highest on the Prime Power is Bianchi's Boy who was compromised by a wide trip last time but previously won easily at this distance at Fair Grounds and who has a win and a second over this track.
The Official Handicapping Source for Kentucky Derby 135.
All Brisnet.com past performances and reports will be online for the KY Derby beginning Wednesday, April 29. Signature products include the BRIS Ultimate PPs and the Wizard's in-depth race analysis with expert wagering strategy.