Week 1 stats
Week 1 Recap
A three-day week to kick off the meet did not reveal much in terms of significant trends, but the information will be valuable as the meet moves on and we have larger samples to examine.
Here in New Orleans we’re fortunate to have a daily newspaper, The Times-Picayune, that still recognizes the value of publishing charts every day. I clip the results from the paper so I don’t have to waste toner printing them out from the Internet. It would be nice if the Times-Pic included the splits in addition to the final time, but beggars can’t be choosers, I guess, and these days I’m happy to see charts in a major newspaper at all.
Anyway, the main track played to its reputation as a very fair surface, with winners of all types. Out of the winners of 28 dirt races, seven set or contested the early lead, 14 stalked within a few lengths of the leader, three emerged from mid-pack, and four were stone-cold closers.
As for post positions, the 28 main-track races did reveal a preponderance on winners from the first five slots, with five coming from the rail and seven from post No. 4. In all, 20 of the 28 main-track winners broke from posts 1-5.
Because of scratches, some races went off with less than 10 starters, so it is only logical that a few more winners would come from the first five posts. This many, however, appears significant, and we might want to give the inside horses a little extra consideration this weekend until the trend dissipates, as they all eventually do.
And how about favorites? The pari-mutuel pool has proven to be a better-than-average indicator of success, with 12 favorites coming through for the public out of 30 races run, a 40-percent clip.
On the Black Gold tip sheet I picked nine winners for a 30-percent clip thus far. I had a much better weekend with my Value Plays. Of the nine races I offered a suggested wager for, six of them cashed, including a $49.80 exacta on Opening Day and a $96.80 exacta on Sunday with a 3.20-1 winner over a 9.90-1 runner-up. Overall my suggested wagers returned $233.50.
Check back for another post before the weekend, and remember that you can e-mail me questions and comments anytime at firstname.lastname@example.org.