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Using Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances to find longshot winners.
With a wide array of statistics the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances can be the key to finding longshot winners and lucrative payoffs. A look at Calder's card on Thursday may offer some examples.
Race 1. In this five and a half claiming event #3 LOLA'S RIDGE is 12/1 on the morning line, but a close third ranked on Prime Power. Trained by Michael Thomas, whose runners are winning at a 22 percent rate this meet, Lola's Ridge figures to get a good trip from just off the pace over a track where she has three wins.
Race 2. 12 juvenile colts are entered in this five furlong maiden claimer. Several are first time starters including #4 SOUTHERN REVIEW who is trained by William White. Winning at a rate of 23 percent for the meet, White wins with 15 percent of his first time starters. Debutants by Southern Review's sire, Closing Argument win at a high rate of 17 percent while those by his damsire, Forest Wildcat score at 14 percent. Good first time statistics on both his trainer and pedigee, and with decent workouts, make Southern Review a possible good play at 6/1 on the morning line.
Race 5. With the morning line favorite a lukewarm 3/1, this appears to be a contentious one mile claimer. The Prime Power pick is #4 FOG ISLAND whose trainer wins at a 25 percent rate, with a positive ROI with runners like this that are dropping down one class. In a race as open as this, Fog Island could be dispatched at longer odds than his 4/1 morning line which would represent value.
Race 6. Although #5 SOUTHERN BLITZ did not show much he may be worth a look in this five furlong maiden claimer with a morning line of 20/1. Southern Blitz will drop one class, a situation in which his trainer, David Brownlee has been winning at a 20 percent rate with a healthy ROI. In addition, Southern Blitz's dam, who was stakes placed has a high DPI of 2.88 having already produced five winners of which three won stakes.
Race 7. Scheduled for one mile on the turf, this claimer looks very competitive. #9 SWINGMAN is top ranked on Prime Power and is a juicy 10/1 on the morning line. The Gerald Procino trained colt is also top on both the Current Class and Average Competitive Level (ACL) categories in the Ultimate Race Summary.
Race 8. Despite drawing a wide post, the first time starter #11 TOOK IT FROM HIM (6/1 on the morning line), must be given a serious look in this maiden claimer. The juvenile is by Wildcat Heir, whose offspring have been winning 27 percent in their debuts and his trainer, Peter Gulyas has won with one of his last three runners to make their first start in a maiden claiming event.
Tim Holland 9-30-09.
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