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Taking advantage of false favorites found by Prime Power.
Over and over the Brisnet Prime Power Ratings, found in the Ultimate Past Performances have proved their worth in consistently picking winners. However, they can also be used as a good tool for identifying false favorites.
It does not occur often that the post time favorite is not one of the top three ranked horses on Prime Power. Indeed, in last week's races from Calder (Thursday through Sunday) and Arlington (Wednesday through Sunday) this happened just seven times in the 80 or more races contested. However, five of these favorites did not hit the board, and four of the races provided good examples on how handicappers can capitalize on the public's misjudgements.
Thursday, Arlington Race 7. In this one mile and a sixteenth claimer on the Polytrack Deputy Sreva was the public's choice at 2.60/1 followed by Rylee River at 3.30/1. However, on Prime Power this pair was ranked just fourth and fifth respectively. By throwing the two market leaders out of consideration, players could have concentrated on the top three on Prime Power, Tidy Up (4.80/1), Rolled Up (5.10/1) and Bond Street (5.10/1). In the event Rolled Up set the pace into the stretch and was passed late by Bond Street. With the first two favorites finishing, as predicted by Prime Power, out of the money the exacta paid a very healthy $80.20.
Saturday, Arlington Race 7. Molander was the slight post-time favorite at 3.30/1 in this mile claimer on the main track. After being forwardly placed, the gelding flattened out to finish in a dead heat for third but was subsequently disqualified and placed fourth for interference. The winner, at 3.60/1 was the clear Prime Power pick, Beaufort who defeated the third choice on the Prime Power, Roaring Scout (3.70/1) by three quarters of a length. This exacta was worth $32.40.
Saturday, Arlington Race 10. In a contentious maiden claimer on the turf, the market leaders Playon Player at 2.70/1 and Royally Outfoxed at 3.60/1 were ranked seventh and fifth on Prime Power. Both ran poorly, finishing seventh and tenth. The race went to the 9.60/1 outsider Cosmic King with a bigger longshot at 14/1, Two Ninety Five in second and Wistful Smile, who was dispatched at 8.20/1, third. Handicappers could have scored heavily here since this trio ranked as the top three on Prime Power. The exacta paid $231.00 and the trifecta $1,607.20.
Sunday, Arlington Race 1. The strong favorite at 1.60/1 for this six furlong maiden special weight was Suble Hunter who was ranked fourth on Prime Power and finished in that position. Once again the top three Prime Power choices filled out the trifecta which returned $186.60. The exacta paid $80.00.
Tim Holland 8-24-09.
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