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Sunday at Churchill Downs and Calder.
With a beautiful day forecasted for Sunday, the feature at Churchill is a mile and a sixteenth optional claimer on the turf which is carded as race nine on the ten race program.
A competitive field of nine is entered with WISE RIVER ranking narrowly on top of the BRIS Prime Power Ratings. A six-year-old trained by Hanna Clark, Wise River most recently put in a good effort in the Frank Kilroe Mile (G1) at Santa Anita when, although he faded to ninth at the finish, he was in contention at the top of the stretch. His toughest rival may be INCA KING who ranks a close second in the Prime Power Ratings. Although he will be making his first start since last August a look at the Ultimate Past Performances reveals that his trainer, Steve Asmussen, wins with 18 percent of his runners returning off a 90 day plus layoff. Additionally, Inca King is a perfect three-for-three on this course.
In race five, a six furlong maiden claimer, UNSTOPPABLE FORCE is the clear, near five point, Prime Power leader. However, he is winless in 12 starts including his last at this level at Gulfstream and a better bet maybe PRIME CHOICE who shows the best early speed figures in the race. Importantly, Prime Choice's trainer, Chuck Peery, sports a 35 percent win rate with a sizeable ROI, with runners taking a small drop in class. Also worth consideration in race five is BOURBON BEAR who earned decent early pace figures in his debut and owns impressive sire and damsire SPIs, according to the Ultimate Past Performances.
Calder's featured tenth race is a one mile allowance for three-year-old fillies. GADDA DA VIDA is top on the Prime Power figures and will be making her third start off a lengthy layoff, a situation in which trainer Martin Wolfson excels, winning at 29 percent. Most recently Gadda Da Vida finished third at Gulfstream earning the highest Early Pace Last Race figure, as seen in the Ultimate Past Performances Race Summary.
In race four at Calder MISS LIEUTENANT returns from a long layoff, an angle at which trainer Gregory Griffith wins 21 percent of the time generating a profitable ROI. Second highest in the Prime Power rankings, Miss Lieutenant showed speed in both her lifetime starts and owns the highest Back Speed figure.
The Official Handicapping Source for Kentucky Derby 135.
All Brisnet.com past performances and reports will be online for the KY Derby beginning Wednesday, April 29. Signature products include the BRIS Ultimate PPs and the Wizard's in-depth race analysis with expert wagering strategy.
--Tim Holland (4.24.09)