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Saturday stakes Prime Power review.
Arlington and Calder's Saturday cards provided some great racing with 14 stakes races contested between the two tracks. With many top class competitive races, lucrative wagering opportunities were plentiful and once again the Brisnet Prime Power figures proved their handicapping worth.
In the 14 stakes, no less than five (36 percent) of the top ranked Prime Power horses returned winners. The Modesty H.(G3) winner Pure Clan who returned $3.80, Game Face, who ran away with the Princess Rooney S.(G1) returning $5.60 and Grand Cash ($6.40 in Calder's American Dreamer S.) were all fairly easy to spot. However, First Passage, who won the Azalea S. (G3) and the Arlington H. (G3) victor Just As Well were a little less obvious.
The Azalea S. was perfect illustration of the Prime Power rankings exposing a false favorite. Indeed, the Bob Baffert-trained Underground was the 5/2 choice on the morning line but was bet down to 3/2 at post time. However, on the Prime Power Underground was ranked in a lowly eighth position, ahead of just one other runner -- a view that was proved correct when the Californian shipper finished eighth of the nine runners.
While First Passage was not quite the overlay in the Azalea as the 8/1 that was allotted to her in the morning line, she still provided value when she won returning $9 as the Prime Power pick. Further profits could have been found in this race via the Prime Power as the second and third ranked Kays And Jays and Royal Card took the minor honors which produced cold exacta and trifecta payoffs of $43.80 and $296.00 respectively.
As well as being the Prime Power selection, Just As Well was also top ranked on the Speed Last Race, Back Speed and Late Pace Last Race categories in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances Summary in the Arlington H. He provided value when he won as the third choice returning $10.40 and three of the top four Prime Power ranked horses filled the first three places home in this deep and contentious field. This generated a juicy trifecta return of $805.20.
Value could also be found on Saturday using the second and third top ranked runners on the Prime Power. In the Frank Gomez Memorial S. at Calder, the odds-on favorite Wilter Wish was the Prime Power selection but his stumlbe at the start left the second and third ranked Jackson Bend and D'Funnybone to fight out the finish. Jackson Bend paid $20.40 to win and the exacta returned $142.20. Another example came in the Arlington Sprint H. which, on paper, looked like a two horse race between Chamberlain Bridge and St. Joe. However, it was the Prime Power third top ranked, Yankee Injunuity, who took top honors returning $19.00. The trifecta of Yankee Injunuity over the two favorites returned a handy $122.40 in the seven horse field.
At the end of the day a $2 win bet on the Prime Power top picks in the 14 stakes races on Saturday produced a profit of $6.70, or 24 percent. $2 win bets on the second and third top ranked resulted in profits of $7.80 (28 percent) and $19.80 (71 percent). However, the best value was found in the exotics. Indeed, a $2 exacta box on the top three ranked on the Prime Power provided a $184.60 profit from $168 staked (110 percent) and a $2 trifecta box (for the same stake) realized a profit of $250.40 -- a whopping 149 percent.
Tim Holland 7-13-09.
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