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Prime Power weekend best bets.
The Brisnet Prime Power ratings, available in the Ultimate Past Performances, have been proven over a long period of time as a reliable indicator of winners. Indeed, 31 percent of the Prime Power top picks win, and of the highest ranked runners that are six or more points clear the win rate is 46 percent. Here is a look at some runners that are ranked at least six points clear in the weekend races at Arlington, Calder and Churchill.
Sunday, Calder Race 6. With an 18 point advantage over his nearest rivals D'ARTAGNAN'SSPIRIT is the best Prime Power bet of the day. Although he is taking a major, and suspicious, drop in class and has not raced for 428 days, the seven-year-old towers over his rivals. D'artagnans'spirit also ranks top in the Average Class Last 3 category in the Ultimate Race Summary and his trainer, Kirk Ziadie, who has been winning at a 25 percent rate this meet, wins with 30 percent of his runners returning off a 90 plus day layoff.
Saturday, Churchill Race 6. Several first-time starters are entered in this maiden which makes RED RALLY'S near 11 point advantage over the rest of this field slightly less significant. However, if the Merrill Scherer trained colt can reproduce the early speed he showed in his debut and with the experience of that first race under his belt, he maybe hard to catch.
Saturday, Arlington Race 10. In the 14 furlong Polar Expedition S. over the Polytrack, GANGBUSTER is ranked over 10 points clear of the rest of the field on the Prime Power. A synthetic specialist, Gangbuster won the 13 furlong Fort Harrod S. at Keeneland, increasing his lead the further he went and eventually winning by nearly 11 lengths at the wire. Unplaced in the Louisville H. (G3) in his last start, Gangbuster will appreciate the switch back to the Polytrack.
Sunday, Churchill Race 7. Usually a front running type, ST. JOE used different tactics when coming from behind to win over this trip last time out. With three others entered with early speed it is likely that rider Julien Leparoux will employ off the pace tactics again. Despite being over eight points clear on the Prime Power, St. Joe is tabbed as the third choice on the morning line and may offer value.
Sunday, Arlington Race 9. The clear, seven point, ranked Prime Power runner PRINCEVILLE CONDO has been in the money in all three of his starts, all over this turf course. While owning tactical speed, Princeville Condo has shown the ability to rally from off the pace which will play to his advantage in this race that appears to have plenty pace.
Sunday Calder, Race 5. With seven third and two second place finishes from 19 starts TANGO RIDGE has been somewhat frustrating. However, dropping in class from his last three races the chestnut may have found a decent sport to break his maiden being ranked over seven points clear on the Prime Power.
Saturday, Arlington Race 2. DOTTIE BOOTH has been a model of consistency winning 10 of her 52 lifetime races, including four over synthetic surfaces. With a seven point Prime Power advantage she may prove a good claim for her new connections who took her when she finished second at this level last time out.
Saturday, Calder Race 10. In a competitive optional claimer SAILING TIME is the slight morning line favorite, but is ranked over six points clear on the Prime Power. A winner of two races over this track, Sailing Time figures to get a good stalking trip in a race with plenty of early pace.
Tim Holland 6-26-09.
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