Prime Power value review.
In this space on Friday a look was taken at using horses ranked among the top three on the Brisnet Prime Power as a method of locating live longshots. Four examples of horses that were 8/1 or over on the morning line and ranked in the top three were given for Arlington on Saturday and Sunday. The two possible overlays on Friday both scratched and on Saturday one was unplaced but the other, while in the end not a huge overlay at odds of 4.90/1, did win, returning $11.80. However, a look back at the weekend results reveals that there were other live longshots among the top three Prime Power horses.
On Saturday's card there were four horses that were ranked in the top three on Prime Power whose final odds were at least 8/1. The second of this quartet was in the third race. This maiden claiming event on the turf looked, on paper, to be a two horse race between Wistful Smile and Polished and the public acted accordingly, with both going off at under 2/1. However, ignored at the windows was Two Ninety Five who was ranked second on the Speed Last Race as well as on the Early Pace Last Race categories in the Brisnet Ultimate Race Summary. Two Ninety Five, who had finished second against similar last time, went to the lead from the start and held Wistful Smile at bay returning $22.
In the fourth race, Go Native was the Prime Power pick and the strong favorite. Second on Prime Power in this six runner, one mile claimer was Ay You're Adorable who was dispatched at 9.30/1. In the event, the favorite ran poorly and was unplaced while Ay You're Adorable raced well having the lead in mid-stretch before being out finished and winding up second. Her place payoff of $8 was generous in this six horse field.
Ansong was clear, by over five points, as the Prime Power pick in Saturday's tenth race, a competitive mile optional claimer on the turf. Going off at 8.10/1 Ansong prevailed in a thrilling finish and returned $18.20 to win.
The fourth runner on Saturday that was 8/1 or over and among the top three Prime Power choices was unplaced, and on Sunday's card three runners fit these parameters. None won, but in the fifth race, Bella Michelle, who was third on Prime Power finished a solid second at 8.10/1 and returned $6 to place, while in the eighth an 11.70/1 shot, Ava Marie (also ranked third on Prime Power) came in third.
In all, over the two days there were seven longshots pinpointed in this way using Prime Power. Two won, two were second and one was third. A $2 win bet on these would have realized a profit of $16.20 for $14 wagered -- a more than 100 percent profit.
Tim Holland 9-14-09.
Satellite Your Way into the $150,000 BC Betting Challenge