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Handicapping Monday at Calder
There are many ways to use the BRIS Prime Power Rating, and not all involve selecting the winner of the race. Sometimes the Prime Power Rating can be use to identify false favorites. When the morning line choice comes up with a poor ranking on Prime Power, this can be a good indicator that we have identified a potential false favorite.
Three runners in particular fit the bill on today's card at Calder:
Race 3) # 1 Shot Gun Georgie is only 8/5 on the line. She is a close third on Prime Power Rating, so she is the strongest of the three runners we are listing as potential false favorites. She exits a strong second with today's rider up after closing into a pedestrian pace only 11 days ago.
Race 6) # 5 Chihulykee is 5/2 on the line and ranked a dismal 8th on Prime Power. This looks like the most contentious card on Monday and is the Super Hi-5 betting race. The second choice, South Pacific, is 3/1 and is returning off a 211 day layoff. This is a wide-open, great betting race.
Race 7) # 5 Silver Power is a lukewarm 9/5 choice who is ranked third on Prime Power. His lone win was on a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park, so he would appreciate the storms coming in time.
With a 70-percent chance of rain today, # 2 Awesome Moment looks like the strongest bet on the card in the finale. The filly exits a Grade 2 race here at Calder and looks very tough on the sharp drop in class. Although her turf form is superior to any in this field, I believe she is even better on the dirt. The daughter of top sire Awesome Again (3.41 SPI) is a solid key to end the late Pick-3 and Big-4 wagers.
-- Rich Nilsen, 5/18/09
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