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Easy-to-use method to locate debuting winners.
Among the toughest challenges a handicapper has is evaluating the chances of first time starters -- a chore that can be made easier by using the pedigree and trainer statistics found in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances. A look at the last four days of racing at Calder offers some examples.
In all 28 runners made their first stats in the last four days of racing at Calder with three of these proving successful. The first of the three winners was Southern Review who scored in the second race on Thursday and who was fairly easy to spot using the Ultimate Past Perfomance statistics. Indeed, the chestnut colt is trained by William White, whose debutants win at a very respectable rate of 15 percent and first time starters by Southern Review's sire, Closing Argument win at 17 percent.
Miss Aristocrat was the second of the trio, taking the sixth on Saturday. While Miss Aristocrat was a little harder to spot than Southern Review being trained by the somewhat obscure, Jason Dacosta, it must be noted that she is also by the 17 percent first time starter sire, Closing Argument.
The third debuting winner in the four days at Calder was Usain Again who won the sixth race on Sunday. Trained by Jose Pinchin, whose debutants win 20 percent of the time, Usain Again is by Seattle Fitz who, like Closing Argument, produces debut winners at a 17 percent rate.
All three winners were, as noted, by sires whose offspring win at a high rate first time out. In all there were six debutants on the four cards at Calder by sires whose runners win their first starts at a rate of 15 pecent or higher and the results, with their odds, were as follows:
Thursday, race 2. Southern Review, 3.20/1, finished first.
Thursday, race 8. Took It From Him, 7.10/1, finished second.
Saturday, race 6. Miss Aristocrat, 4.20/1, finished first.
Saturday, race 13. Culture Shock, 19.20/1, unplaced.
Saturday, race 13. Minstrel Lisa, 9.30/1, finished fourth.
Sunday, race 6. Usain Again, 4.40/1, finished first.
Of these six, just three -- Southern Review, Took It From Him and Usain Again were sent out by trainers that win at a rate of 15 percent or higher with their first time starters. While taken from just a small sample, two winners and a second from just three runners is impressive and this trainer/sire angle is a simple one worth looking for in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances.
Tim Holland 10-5-09.
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