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Contentious 10c Superfecta race at Arlington.
Contentious races that may present good betting opportunities can often be quickly identified by comparing the track's morning line with the Brisnet Prime Power ratings. When one or two of the top Prime Power ranked horses are relatively overlooked on the morning line, lucrative payoffs may be on offer.
A good example is found in the eighth and final race at Arlington on Thursday on which a $0.10 superfecta is offered. The lukewarm morning line choice in the field of 12 is Twisting Road at 4/1 followed by Can't Spell at 9/2 and Sefa Split tabbed as a 6/1 shot. However, the Prime Power ranks Hail Victory (12/1 on the morning line) top, Twisting Road second and Decedent, who is 10/1 on the morning line, third. Can't Spell is ranked only fifth on the Prime Power while Sefa Split checks in at ninth place. A quick glance indicates that this race has the potential to produce a large superfecta payoff.
The Prime Power pick, #8, Hail Victory, making his second start of the year is a specialist at this mile and a sixteenth distance having won three of five tries. A look at his pace figures and run style (E8) in the Ultimate Past Performances reveal that he is the likely pacesetter over a trip that has produced a respectable 19 percent wire-to-wire winners (from a total of 69 races) as seen in the Track Bias stats. With other E style runners, Monhocracy and Sixteen Guage, entered it is possible that Hail Victory will face pressure early and not secure an easy lead but his superior pace figures and generous morning line odds may be enough to warrant his being a key part of a superfecta ticket
Despite being unraced for 131 days it is noted that #3, Twisting Road's trainer Dale Bennett wins with 35 percent of his runners coming off a 90 plus day layoff according to the trainer stats in the Ultimate Past Performances. Winning at a 38 percent clip for the meet Bennett's runners have been in fine form and with Twisting Road taking a sizeable drop in class and most likely receiving a decent pace to benefit his "P" running style, it may be prudent to also include the Prime Power's second choice as a key runner on the ticket.
# 12, Decendant, the Prime Power's third choice, has been racing primarily at the lower class Fairmont Park. However, this may be deceiving since his overall Bris Speed Ratings are comparable with any others in this field and he is ranked top on the Average Class Last 3 category in the Ultimate Race Summary. Although winless in two starts over the Arlington Polytrack, he merits inclusion with a generous morning line of 10/1.
Having shown little in his last two races against better, #9, Lacer takes a perhaps needed drop in class. Ranked fourth on Prime Power the ten-year-old must be considered a danger if he can recapture the form that he showed when he earned speed ratings that were, albeit on the turf, amongst the best here.
#7, Can't Spell, the second choice on the morning line and fifth on Prime Power, has not raced for 201 days. However, his trainer, Michael Reavis wins with 22 percent of his runners coming back of comparable layoffs and the chestnut has recorded two recent bullets and has two wins over this surface.
Being trained by the high percentage Wayne Catalano automatically qualifies #11, Sefa Split and pace factor #4, Sixteen Guage should be considered being top on the Current Class category in the Ultimate Race Summary.
One strategy to play the superfecta might be to assume that either the best speed horse (#8, Hail Victory) or the best closer (#3, Twisting Road) will finish first or second. A $0.10 superfecta keying these two in the first and second spots with the # 7, 9, and 12 and adding the 4 and 11 on the bottom would cost $19.20.
3, 8 with 3,7,8,9,12 with 3,7,8,9,12 with 3,4,7,8, 9,11,12 = $9.60 and 3,7,8,9,12 with 3,8 with 3,7,8,9,12 with 3,4,7,8,9,11,12 = $9.60 for a total of $19.20.
Tim Holland 7-8-09
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