Catching Up on Stats
Apologies for neglecting the blog the past few weeks. Let's get it going again with some statistics, not available in the program or Daily Racing Form, for you to keep in mind while you handicap.
Trends should always be taken into consideration while you're betting, whether it be hot jockeys and trainers or track biases or post positions. Some trends are meaningless, mere statistical anomalies that emerge randownly over the course of time. Others, however, like the hot horsemen, can be valuable when incorporated into your handicapping.
When a trainer or jockey gets hot it's not usually because they planned on it, but sometimes there's an explanation there whether they know it or not. Perhaps all of the horses in a trainer's barn are responding well to a change in locale, or something in their regimen. Maybe a jockey's agent has found his stride and is securing better mounts for a solid rider that is under the radar.
In any case, there's value to be had in the pools for those that identify the hot horsemen. Here are a few that stood out in January...
Top Trainers in January by Win Percentage (min. 10 starts):
Angel Montano, 4-11, 36%
Wes Hawley, 6-18, 33%
Tom Amoss, 10-31, 32%
Michael Stidham, 9-31, 29%
Eric Heitzmann, 4-14, 29%
Edward Johnston, 4-14, 27%
Ronny Werner, 4-16, 25%
Top Jockeys in January by Win Percentage (min. 15 starts):
Shaun Bridgmohan, 22-96, 23%
Jamie Theriot, 23-103, 22%
E.J. Perrodin, 3-15, 20%
Robby Albarado, 20-104, 19%
Miguel Mena, 13-87, 15%
Look at all the trainers that are on a roll the past two weeks...
Top Trainers Last Two Weeks by Win Percentage (min. 9 starts):
Tom Amoss, 5-13, 38%
Michael Stidham, 5-13, 38%
Edward Johnston, 3-9, 33%
Wes Hawley, 3-9, 33%
Hawley's average win payoff for those three hits in $47.70.
Top Jockeys Last Two Weeks by Win Percentage (min. 10 starts):
Shaun Bridgmohan, 10-40, 25%
Jamie Theriot, 9-38, 24%
Robby Albarado, 10-45, 22%
Eddie Martin Jr., 4-18, 22%
Also worth noting is that while Miguel Mena is further down the list with a 16% clip (7-45), his average win payoff is a juicy $39.30. None of the jockeys winning at more than 20% over the past two weeks boasts an average win payoff in double digits.