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Carryover Preview for Wednesday; Looking ahead at Arlington and Churchill.
With a $781,146 carryover in the Pick Six and $251,865 in the Super Hi-5 wager, plenty of interest will be generated for Churchill's Wednesday card.
The Pick Six sequence starts with a six furlong maiden claimer for fillies and mares carded as race 4. A field of nine is entered with the Charles Dickey trained Yankee Player installed as the slight morning line favorite. Dickey has been winning at 20 percent this year and two of his last six runners dropping down two classes have won as seen in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances. Yankee Player owns the best Early Pace Last Race figure according to the Brisnet Ultimate Race Summary and owns the second highest Prime Power rating. Five Star Sweetie is top on the Prime Power and also has good early speed figures and gets blinkers added. One to watch for may be Morning Magic, a debutant from the Eddie Kenneally barn. Overall, Kenneally wins wth 9% of his first time starters, but at a rate of 14% when they debut in maiden claimers. Morning Magic has superior SPI and DPI pedigree stats and may be spotted to win at this low level.
The third leg of the Pick Six, race 6, is a mile and a sixteenth maiden for fillies and mares on the turf. Mimi's Kids is top of the Prime Power and has the best LP, or Late Pace, figure in the race earned when second in her last turf try at Gulfstream. Mimi's Kids has good pedigree figures as does Just An Inkling who will be making her turf debut, an angle at which trainer Jeff Thornbury has won with 7 of his last 28 (25%) tries.
Race 9 will conclude the Pick Six and will feature the Super Hi-5 wager. In a competitive field a closer, Mr. Champ, who drops in class and has two previous wins over the track, is the slight morning line favorite and Prime Power pick. With Painted Forest and Steds Pirate expected to set the early fractions, there appears to be enough early pace to set up Mr. Champ's late run. However, stalkers that have better early pace figures, and may get the jump on him include Nafass and Jolly Ol' Nick.
Racing returns to Arlington Park on Thursday with the first race a one mile maiden claimer. Here Larry Rivelli, who has won with 31% of his starters this year saddles Awesome Richie, the Prime Power selection. Returning off a 48 day freshening, (at which Rivelli wins at a 26% rate), Awesome Richie owns superior BRIS Pace Ratings and will attempt to go wire-to-wire.
The most contentious race on Churchill's Thursday card may be the finale, a six furlong maiden claimer for three-year-olds and up. Several are dropping in class including Goldfinder who showed little in Maiden Special Weights at Fair Grounds and Keeneland. By the promising sire Speightstown, Goldfinder is a half-brother to one stakes winner, as seen in the Ultimate Past Performances and his dam has a high DPI. Most significantly, Goldfinder's trainer Dallas Stewart's runners win at a rate of 26% when dropped into maiden claimers.
Tim Holland 5-5-09.