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Brisnet Weekend Nuggets.
In Churchill's opening race on Saturday's card Wayne Catalano sends out Ok Nothanksforaskn in a mile and a sixteenth starter allowance. This will be the six-year-old's first start for Catalano, an angle which wins at 38 percent of the time as seen in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances. Ok Nothanksforaskn is a clear, near six point leader in the Prime Power rankings and, judged by his superior pace ratings, should control the race from the start.
The eighth race at Churchill is a fascinating six furlong maiden for three-year-old fillies. Ian Wilkes saddles the debutant Caroline B who is by Speightstown. While Wilkes, whose runners have been in fine form at the meet, only wins with four percent of his first time starters, Speightown's debutants have been winning at a startling rate of 22 percent. In addition, Caroline B is out of a stakes winner who is the dam of six previous winners and has a DPI (Dam's Production Index) of 1.58. The filly is 8/1 in the morning line and may be worth a bet if active on the tote board.
Race four at Arlington on Saturday is a contentious mile and a sixteenth maiden for fillies on the turf. Single Solution is the luke warm morning line favorite and the Prime Power pick but better value could be found with Smart N Lonely who is pegged at 10/1. Making her first start for Thomas Proctor (a 27 percent angle), Smart N Lonely will be making her turf debut for which she is well bred being out of, as well as a half-sister to grass stakes winners. In addition, turf debutants by Smart N Lonely's sire, Smarty Jones, have won at a rate of 27 percent, albeit from a small sample according to the BRIS pedigree stats found in the Ultimate Past Performances.
The Saturday feature at Arlington is the one mile Reluctant Guest S. which has drawn a competitive field of twelve. Here Proctor will saddle Sly Storm who, with her sire Storm Cat having a SPI (Sire Production Index) of 4.68 and her dam (Brushed Halory) a DPI of 5.89 is the best bred in the field. Sly Storm will be making her second start off a layoff and her first at a route, situations in which Proctor wins at 19 and 23 percent respectively.
The Big Bubble S. is the Saturday highlight at Calder. The mile and a sixteenth event on the turf has attracted a field of eleven. Mambo Meister is the Prime Power pick as well as being top in the Speed Last Race, Current Class and Late Pace Last Race categories in the BRIS Ultimate Race Summary. Making his second start off a layoff, the Philip Gleaves trained colt should be able to stalk a strong pace that looks like being set by front runners Honey Honey Honey and Hal's My Hope.
Sunday's feature at Churchill marks the seasonal reappearance of Tizdejavu who won the American Turf (G3) and the Jefferson Cup (G2) here last year. A confirmed front-runner, Tizdejavu may not have everything his own way on the lead with speedster Timbucto also entered. A speed duel may be to the advantage of Corrupt and Jazz In The Park who are first and second ranked in the Late Pace Last Race and Current Class categories in the Ultimate Race Summary.
Preakness Past Performances and reports are now available online at Brisnet.com
Tim Holland 5-13-09.