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Brisnet weekend maiden Spot Plays.

The statistics used in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances can be especially useful when handicapping maiden races. A few examples can be seen in this weekends races.

Race 1, Churchill, Saturday. Ronny Werner wins with 21 percent of his runners that make their second start according to the trainer stats found in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances. Here he saddles Cat Island who showed speed before fading to sixth in his debut. Bred for speed, his sire Lion Heart's offspring have an average winning distance of 6.3f and his damsire Ogygian, 6.8f, Cat Island is out of a winning mare that has produced one stakes winner and has a high DPI of 8.03. Cat Island will be looking to go wire-to-wire under Brian Hernandez Jr. who has won on two mounts out of five for Werner in the last 60 days.

Race 3, Churchill, Saturday. She's From Queens returns to the turf for George Arnold after a couple of sub par efforts on synthetic surfaces at Keeneland and Arlington. The dam of She's From Queens has a good DPI of 3.95 and is by Dynaformer whose offspring win at an above average rate of 14 percent on the grass. Arnold adds blinkers to the filly for this, a move has produced winners for him 26 percent of the time and generated a positive ROI.

Race 7, Churchill, Saturday. Wesley Ward is second to none when it comes to having runners ready to win in their debut. Indeed, 30 percent of his first time starters win and here he sends out Frankie Cal, named after his owner, Frank Calabrese. One of the first runners by the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) winner Ghostzapper, Frankie Cal is out of a stakes winning mare whose only previous starter won as a juvenile. With fast workouts at Keeneland the chestnut colt will be hard to beat.

Race 11, Churchill, Saturday. Successful Appeal, at 18 percent, owns among the highest win rates of first time starters. His son Successful Score will debut here for Dale Romans who wins with a respectable 12 percent of his debutants.  A bullet workout over 75 others at the distance hints that this colt is ready.

Race 2, Arlington, Saturday. Winning Tale debuts here for Bret Calhoun who wins at a high 19 percent with his first time starters. By Tale Of The Cat whose offspring win at an average distance of 6.7f and 17 percent of the time in their first starts, Winning Tale is bred for speed and posts a solid worktab.

Race 11, Arlington, Saturday. Austin Smith does sneaky well with young horses and will saddle Run With The Band for her third start here. The three-year-old filly ran well in both her starts last year and recorded a high E2 Race Rating of 98 in her last start at Keeneland in October before being laid off for the year. With her sire Gulch, who owns a good SPI of 2.33, having a debut win rate of just 10 percent and his offspring an average winning distance of 7.5f one should expect Run With The Band to improve with maturity and her recent works have been solid.

Race 6, Calder, Saturday. Jose Pinchin is having a solid year winning at 18 percent and he has done even better with his first time starters who have scored at 20 percent. His debutant here is Setting The Rate who is by 16 percent debut winning sire Exchange Rate. At 8/1 in the morning line the gray filly could be worth watching despite a wide post.

Race 8, Calder Saturday. Flashy Dancer will make her second lifetime start having shown little in her debut. However, his trainer Milton Wolfson wins at 29 percent with his second time out runners and he adds blinkers and Lasix for this. A son of Langfuhr whose offspring often need experience, Flashy Dancer is a half brother to three stakes winners and his dam has a high DPI of 3.76.

Race 1, Churchill, Sunday. Ronny Werner saddles another second time starter in Southern Dynasty in this maiden scheduled for the turf. Southern Dynasty's sire More Than Ready wins with a decent 16 percent of his runners trying the grass for the first time and she is a half sister to one grass winner.

Tim Holland 6-19-09.

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