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Brisnet Value Plays for Thursday and Friday.
By using statistics, such as those relating to trainers and pedigrees, found in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances one can uncover overlays that are the key to successful long-term handicapping. A few examples are found in races on Thursday and Friday.
Churchill, Thursday Race 6. While it is going to be hard to beat the probable first two favorites Tidal Pool and Truly A Myth who both finished second in their debuts, it may be worth taking a look at a first-time starter, # 8 COSTLY who will undoubtebly offer value. Trained by Bernie Flint, who wins with a respectable 14 percent of his debutants, Costly is by Mutakddim whose first time starters score at a very high rate of 17 percent. Also found in the Ultimate Past Performance pedigree stats is that 40 percent of Costly's brothers and sisters that have raced as juveniles have won. These include Burglary, a full brother to Costly, who won first time out and was also handled by Flint.
Calder, Thursday Race 4. #3 WESTONIA showed improvement when leading early in her first start for trainer Juan Arias at Gulfstream in April. Statistics on Arias reveal that runners making their second start for the barn win at 14 percent and produce a healthy ROI. Arias has only saddled three winners this year from 74 starters but he has hit form recently with two of those winners being at this young Calder meet. Westonia owns the best Late Pace Last Race rating and may wire this relatively paceless field while switching to leading rider Manuel Cruz.
Arlington, Thursday Race 6. Runners trained by Moises Yanez typically only win at 6 percent in their first start. However, they do slightly better when entered in maiden special weights and indeed wagering on all of them produces a healthy ROI. Here Yanez saddles SEATTLE PSALM who attracts the services of hot rider Junior Alvarado who has won with 29 percent of the mounts he has accepted for this barn. Seattle Psalm has solid workouts and is by Seattle Fitz whose debutants have won at a strong 20 percent.
Churchill, Friday Race 5. In a competitive maiden where many of the leading contenders have already been placed, David Carroll saddles #2 INDY SUMMER, a $1.5 million September sales purchase by A. P. Indy. Indy Summer showed little in his debut last October at Keeneland, but Carroll's second time starters win at 26 percent. Additionally, runners trained by Carroll win at 24 percent in their first try at a route distance -- an angle that qualifies as a "Blue Chip Trainer Play" on the BRIS Insider and Power Plays sheet.
Arlington, Friday Race 10. With a 26 percent strike rate, Joel Berndt's second time starters also qualify as a Blue Chip Trainer Play. The Illinois based trainer sends out A.W. SHUCKS who was last seen when no factor in his debut last year at Arlington. Being by a sire, Thunder Gulch who owns the highest SPI in the field and out of a stakes winning mare, A.W.Shucks has the best pedigree in this lowly state bred restricted maiden claimer.
Tim Holland 5-20-09.