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Brisnet Spot Plays for Wednesday at Churchill
Racing resumes at Churchill on Wednesday with a 10 races filled with contentious fields. With the help of the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances some condenders that may offer value at the windows are found.
Race 1. The Prime Power pick in this one mile maiden claimer is #3 Metro Devil who is 5/1 on the morning line. However, the three-year-old is winless in 11 starts and perhaps a better choice may be #7 LOTSOFAWE who will be making her third start of the year for Wayne Catalano and is also tabbed at 5/1 on the morning line . The barn wins with 26 percent of their horses running for the third time off a layoff and at a rate of 30 percent with runners trying a route for the first time, according to the trainer statistics found in the Ultimate Past Performances. Having amongst the best "E1" and "E2" Pace Ratings in the race, Lotsofawe should be in contention throughout.
Race 2. The second race is a six and a half furlong maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies in which a first time starter, #9 YA'LL COME BACK may be worth a close look. Her lesser known trainer, Barbara McBride wins with 17 percent, while generating a positive ROI, of her debuting runners and firsters by her sire win at 13 percent. Ya'll Come Back has a solid worktab and the outside nine post should not present a problem at this distance.
Race 3. In a competitive one mile claimer #5 OUR DANCER, who has three wins and six seconds on this oval, is the Prime Power pick despite having not raced in 60 days. Our Dancer is also ranked top on the Average Class Last 3 category in the Ultimate Race Summary and his trainer, Cody Autrey, wins with 22 percent of his runners returning off this length of layoff.
Race 4. #9 Thewifedoesntknow is top on Prime Power but, at 3/1 on the morning line, may not offer much value. #11 FIRE THE BAND, who is second on Prime Power may be more tempting at 12/1. Trained by the high percentage (22 percent for the year) trainer Dan Miller, Fire The Band has among the best pace ratings in the field and is top on the Average Class Last 3 category.
Race 5. #15 Rare Nugget, whose trainer has been winning at a 32 percent rate for the year, is top ranked on Prime Power and will be hard to beat in this low level claiming event if he draws into the field. If rare Nugget does not make it into the field #12 PENNYROYAL (6/1 morning line) will inherit the top spot on Prime Power and, significantly, will be over four points clear of his nearest rival. The consistent, having won 14 of his 59 lifetime starts, Pennyroyalis also top on the Average Class category and his solid stalking style should enable him to secure a good position from his wide post.
Race 8. Although only 3/1 on the morning line, #2 HONOR HYMN, who is the clear leader on Prime Power may be a good bet to win this six furlong maiden special weight. The Steve Asmussen trained filly showed speed in her debut before fading slightly to finish fourth. In that effort Honor Hymn earned an "E2" pace rating that is superior to any others in the field and the Asmussen barn wins at a rate of 24 percent with their second time starters.
Tim Holland 11-10-09.
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