Brisnet Saturday Graded Stakes Preview.
Arlington will host three graded stakes on Saturday and a look at the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performaces reveals some nuggets that might lead to lucrative payoffs.
Race 6. Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3). Seven will go to post in this one mile event for juvenile colts on the Polytrack with Dixie Band installed as the strong morning line favorite. Unbeaten in his two starts, both over this surface, the Wayne Catalano-trained colt is top ranked on Prime Power but, with a low price anticipated, value may be better found elsewhere.
Although he just beat maiden claimers in his last start, #1 BEWARE THE TIGER at 15/1 on the morning line may be worth a look. Indeed, in that win the son of Hold That Tiger led from start to finish earning a Speed rating of 89, just one point lower than Dixie Band's rating for winning the Spectacular Bid Stakes in his last start. More significant is that Beware The Tiger's "E2" rating in his seven and three-quarter romp was 105 and in his previous race, when he gave way to finish fourth, was 108. The next highest E2 rating scored previously by any in this race is 99 suggesting that Beware The Tiger may take control of this race early. Although this race will be two furlongs longer, the average winning distance (AWD) of the runners of Beware The Tigers dam's sire is 7.7 suggesting that stamina may not be an issue.
Race 8. Washington Park H. (G3). The two shippers from California, Church Service and Unusual Suspect are the first two choices on the morning line. However, the Prime Power pick is #5 WICKED STYLE who is 8/1 on the morning line. A winner of two of his three starts over this surface, Wicked Style is also ranked top on the Early Pace Last Race category in hte Ultimate Past Past Performances Race Summary. A closer look at the colts E1 and E2 Pace ratings reveals that they are clearly superior to those of ay other runners and, in a relatively paceless race, Wicked Style could dominate throughout.
Race9. Arlington-Washington Lassie S. (G3). Similar to the Futurity, Wayne Catalano will saddle the probable short priced favorite, She Be Wild. A dominating winner of the Top Flight S. here last month, She Be Wild is top ranked on the Prime Power as well as on Average Class Last 3 in the Ultimate Summary. As with Dixie Band, value however, may not be available on She Be Wild.
Highest Power and Tiz Miz Sue broke their maidens in their last starts with front-running performances. They both earned high E2 pace ratings with those wins which suggests the early pace may be fast in this mile event. This might lead one to look for a closer which could be #8 SCREEN LEGEND who is the highest ranked on the Late Pace Last Race. This was earned through her late running maiden score over this course and distance last time in which she also recorded the second highest Speed Last Race rating. At 12/1 on the morning line Screen Legend may be a decent value play.
Tim Holland 9-4-09.
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