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Brisnet Running Styles.
Among the most important aspects of handicapping is being able to visualize how a race is going to unfold, and anticipating which runner may benefit, or not, from the likely pace scenario. By using the Running Styles found in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances and Race Summaries players can very quickly achieve this goal. Several examples appear over the next two days at Arlington.
Saturday Race 7. Of the nine races, as seen in the Track Bias Stats in the Ultimate Past Performances, run over this five furlong distance on the turf at this meet, four have been won in wire-to-wire fashion. However, in this high-priced optional claimer five of the seven runners entered are designated "E", or need the lead types, leaving two rated "E/P", that appear to have an advantage here being more comfortable rating early just off the early pace. Interestingly, these two, # 6 TAYLOR MADISON (E/P 3) and # 1 CANDY CANE (E/P 1) closed from off the pace to finish first and second in the Nicole's Dream Stakes over this course and distance in June at odds of 9.70/1 and 16.20/1. Their morning line odds for this race are 6/1 and 12/1 respectively so value may still be available if they duplicate the Nicole's Dream finish.
Saturday Race 5. A strong early pace may also be anticipated in this one mile optional claimer on the turf with eight of the 12 entered being designated as "E" or "E/P" style runners. Of the four that are comfortable coming from off the pace (rated "P" for presser or "S" for closer), # 1 EMPTY HANDED (S 3) owns the best Late Pace figures as seen in the Ultimate Past Performances. Pegged at 6/1 on the morning line the Shannon Ritter trained colt may take advantage of the favorable pace set up as well as providing value.
Sunday Race 1. In this nine furlong maiden special weight on the turf there is just one horse with a designated run style of "E/P" with the remainder being allocated "P" or "S" styles. # 1 CLASSIC RECITAL(E/P 7), who is 12/1 on the morning line, has been showing speed in maiden claimers over this course and distance but has been unsuccessful in eight lifetime tries. However, in this paceless event the gelding may take advantage of being able to control the race early despite moving up in class. Interestingly, Classic Recital's trainer, Mary Zimmerman has saddled two winners from the last four times she has raised a horse from a maiden claimer to the maiden special weight level creating a huge ROI, according to the trainer statistics in the Ultimate Past Performances.
Tim Holland 8-14-09.
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