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Brisnet Prime Power picks.
One of the most consistent overall rating found anywhere is the Brisnet Prime Power rating. While horses that are ranked clear of their competition on Prime Power win at a remarkable rate, value can be also found by looking at runners that are rated second or third. A few examples are seen on the Thursday card at Calder.
Race 1: In this maiden with several lightly raced horses, # 7 Cerrador is the clear Prime Power choice. However, better value may be found if #1A CODY MACARONI, who is on the also-eligble list and 6/1 on the morning line, draws into the race. Third on Prime Power, Cody's Macaroni is top on the Back Speed category in the Ultimate Race Summary and there appears to be plenty of speed to assist his closing style.
Race 2: Being 5/1 on the morning line it is possible that #2 S And S Runner, who is top ranked on Prime Power, may provide value. The Larry Pilotti trained filly is second on the Summary's Average Class Last 3 category and Pilotti has been winning with a high 28 percent of his runners that were beaten as the favorite in their last start.
Race 3. A full field is entered for this turf event and #2 UNTUTTABLE JET is ranked second on Prime Power and is 5/1 on the morning line. Top on Average Competitive Level, Untuttable Jet owns plenty of early speed and is top on Early Pace Last Race in the Ultimate Race Summary.
Race 5. #4 ROMAN SUR (8/1) is ranked third on Prime Power. Roman Sur will be making his second start for Joseph Calascibetta who, according to the Ultimate Past Performances, has some solid statistics that apply in this situation. Indeed, the trainer wins at a rate of 18 percent with second time starters, at 22 percent with runners that are adding blinkers and at 28 percent with horses that are dropping from maiden special weight races to maiden claimers.
Race 7. #5 CRUZIN WITH CASH, whose owns a front running, or "E" runstyle, is 8/1 on the morning line and is a close third on Prime Power. Although there are other runners with early speed entered Cruzin With Cash, who has the highest E1 and E2 Pace Ratings and is top on Early Pace Last Race in the Race Summary, may still establish an advantageous early lead.
Tim Holland 10-28-09.
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