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Brisnet Pedigree ratings for off tracks.
Among the many useful statistics found in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances are Pedigree Ratings. The ratings measure the quality and suitability of the individual horse's breeding for races run on fast dirt, wet dirt, turf and over today's distance.
"While the higher Pedigree Ratings are generally preferred, the key is to not simply look for the highest rated horse. Instead, value oriented handicappers are encouraged to compare the rating of a horse at today's distance (or surface) to his/her other pedigree ratings. Ask yourself if the relationship between the pedigree ratings of a horse suggest he/she will improve or decline at today's distance/surface.
In races run on a wet track, look for those horses whose WET Pedigree Rating is higher than their FAST dirt Pedigree Rating. These horses, based on the performances of other horses with similiar breeding, are well suited to a wet track and often improve dramatically when running on a wet track. "
With two of Calder's last four cards being run over a sloppy track the opportunity arose to test the wet track Pedigree Ratings, and the results, albeit from a fairly small sample, were indeed encouraging.
From the 21 races on the Thursday and Saturday cards at Calder, eight of the races were won by horses whose wet rating exceeded their fast dirt ratings. Four were won by runners whose ratings were equal on the two conditions and nine by horse's whose ratings on a fast dirt were higher than their wet track ratings.
While this might not seem particularily significant at first glance, it must be appreciated that many more runners have a higher fast dirt than wet dirt rating. Indeed there were 44 runners with superior wet figures versus 105 that were higher rated on fast and 31 that had the same ratings.
Runners with higher WET DIRT = 44. Winners = 8 (18%).
Runners with EQUAL ratings = 31. Winners = 4 (13%).
Runners with higher FAST DIRT = 105. Winners = 9 (9%).
One can see that the runners with better wet dirt ratings clearly outperformed the opposition and, more significantly, the eight winners included Emma's Knight who returned $20.20 and the 9.90/1 winner, Drew's Honoree on Thursday and Bring Da Ruckus who returned $35.80 when scoring on Saturday.
Tim Holland 10-26-09.
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