Brisnet Pedigree and Trainer Stats for First Time Starters.
With often few running lines to analyze handicapping maiden races can be a hard task for horseplayers. However, the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances include a wide range of trainer and pedigree statistics that can make this task easier and more profitable. A few examples are seen on Thursday's card at Churchill.
Race 1. As a stallion, Smarty Jones has not, thus far, achieved as much as many expected of him, but his first time starters have proved lucrative to follow. Indeed, his debutants have won at a high rate of 21 percent and here the sire is represented by the first time starter #6 SMARTY PARTY GIRL. The juvenile filly is trained by Bret Calhoun who, according to the trainer statistics in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, wins at a rate of 22 percent (ROI + 0.01) with his firsters in maiden claiming events. Having posted a bullet work on November 11th, Smarty Party Girl, who is a half sister to three winners, is worth serious consideration.
Race 4. Tom Amoss, who wins with 15 percent of his runners debuting in maiden special weight events, will saddle the first time starter, #1 WICKED UNO. The two-year-old filly is by Macho Uno whose firsters have been scoring at a rate of 16 percent and is out of a mare that has produced a pair of juvenile winners already and has a high DPI of 5.99. Although starting from the rail can be a disadvantage for a first time starter, an added bonus would be if the track came up wet for Macho Uno's runners in those conditions win at a startling 22 percent.
Another sire whose offspring excel on off tracks is Distorted Humor (21 percent) and, although her trainer, Michael Maker wins with just 9 percent of his firsters, # 8 FUNNY FEELING is worth a look especially over a sloppy or muddy surface. Distorted Humor wins with 16 percent of his debutants and the stakes winning dam of Funny Feeling has produced three winners, including one stakes winner, and has a high DPI of 7.54.
Race 8. A third good first time starter sire represented by a debutant on this card is Successful Appeal whose daughter, # 6 DYNAMIC TENSION makes her first appearance in this six and a half furlong maiden special weight. Firsters by Successful Appeal win at 18 percent and Dynamic Tension's dam has produced a stakes winner with her only previous runner. Trainer William Connelly wins at 14 percent with first time starters and with decent works and at 10/1 on the morning line, Dynamic Tension is worth a close look.
Tim Holland 11-18-09.
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