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Brisnet Nuggets for Thursday and Friday.

The art of locating overlays can be the key to profitable handicapping. By using statistics, such as those on the  trainer, pedigree, pace or class found in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, players may find nuggets that lead to high priced winners that other handicappers may not uncover. A few examples are seen over the next couple of days at Calder.

Thursday, Race 1. Jorge Navarro does well with second time starters, winning at a rate of 17 percent. Here he sends out #8 MZ'S KADIE Z who showed a little promise in her first start in mid-September. Mz's Katie Z's sire is Black Minnalouche whose offspring only win seven percent of their debuts, suggesting improvement with racing experience. At 8/1 in  the morning line and as the Prime Power pick, Mz's Kadie Z may be worth a look at a decent price.

Thursday, Race 3. #4 JOAN'S ROYAL DAWN is one of two "E", or need the lead types entered here. However, her superior pace, E1 and E2 figures suggest she will be able to control this race early over a trip which, according to the Track Bias Stats in the Ultimate Past Performances, is playing kindly to speed. Second ranked on Average Competitive Level, Joan's Royal Dawn may provide value being 6/1 on the morning line.

Thursday, Race 6. Although the first time starter, #6 DANZIG'S HOPE (ML 8/1)  is by Strong Hope, whose debutants have won at an average 11 percent, he is out of a mare who is by 25 percent first timer sire, Danzig. Trainer Michael McDonald wins with a very decent 16 percent of his first time runners and Danzig's Hope has a decent worktab and a questionable field to beat.

Friday, Race 4. In this nine furlong maiden claimer on the turf, Michael McDonald will saddle #3 FREEDOM LAND who is tabbed at 6/1 on the morning line. Being by Smart Strike, whose SPI is 3.24, and out of a mare by Pleasant Colony, Freedom Land towers over this field based on pedigree. The three-year-old has shown speed in her last two races and her superior pace figures lead one to believe she can dominate this field.

Tim Holland 10-7-09.

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