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Brisnet Nuggets for Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Race 1. #10 LA BIEN ROSE is the morning line favorite and looks like a solid play. Taking a large drop in class La Bien Rose will have blinkers added for her first attempt at a route. Her trainer, David Carroll wins at a rate of 12 percent (ROI +4.42) when he adds blinkers and at 25 percent ROI (+1.01) with runners going a route for the first time.
Race 2. As the lone speed it is hard to oppose #3 AMERICAN REVOLUTION in this seven furlong claiming event. The six-year-old comes from the red-hot barn of Dale Romans and will be ridden by Robby Albarado.
Race 3. The Prime Power pick and morning line favorite here is Lone Cypress. However, the Steve Asmussen trained colt has not won yet in nine tries and may be best avoided. A better choice may be #7 INDY'S SPELL who ranks top on Speed Last Race. The colt takes a class drop in this maiden claimer - a situation in which his trainer, Carl Nafzger has been winning at 46 percent.
Race 4. In this mile and a sixteenth optional claimer on the grass there may be little early pace which may play into the hands of #4 TIMELESS FASHION who is top on Prime Power as well as the Speed Last Race and Current Class categories in the Ultimate Race Summary.
Race 5. Several of the runners in this seven furlong maidens have had many chances so it may pay to take a chance on #1 CANDY RUN who will make just her third start. Coming from the Dale Romans barn the colt will take a sizeable class drop-- a situation in which Romans wins at 28 percent.
Race 6. #9 WHYWHYCAT has two wins over this track on his resume. The Prime Power pick, Whywhy Cat is also top on Class Last Race and his trainer, Bret Calhoun, wins with 30 percent of his runners making this kind of drop in class.
Race 7. After finishing sixth in a grade three event in Canada, #7 JACKPOT JOANIE returns to the maiden ranks here and will be the deserving favorite. Top on Prime Power and several other categories in the Ultimate Summary, Jackpot Joanie is trained by Steve Asmussen who is winning at a 29 percent rate this meet.
Race 8. With plenty of early speed entered for the Bet On Sunshine Stakes it may pay to side with Due Date who is the lone runner that does not have a Run Style of "E" or "EP". Ranked second on Prime Power, Due Date is a juicy 10/1 on the morning line.
Race 9. In a very competitive renewel of the Cardinal H. (G3) #1 YOU GO WEST GIRL is the clear Prime Power choice. The tom Proctor trained filly is in fine form having won her last two starts and is also top on Late Pace Last Race. Another to keep an eye on in here at a decent price is the Jonathon Sheppard trained Long Approach. The five-year-old is top on Average Class Last 3 and Sheppard wins with 19 percent of his runners in stakes races.
Race 10. #2 Warrior's Reward is the clear Prime Power pick in the finale and should return to his winning ways. However, if he is upset it could be by the Prime Power second choice #7 COUNTRY DAY whose trainer, Steve Margolis, has been winning at a rate of 32 percent with horses switching from turf to dirt.
Tim Holland 11-20-09.