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Brisnet Nuggets for Calder Stakes action.
Calder will host seven stakes races on Saturday and a look at the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances reveals some nuggets of information that could lead to lucrative payoffs.
Race 6. The first stakes race of the afternoon is the Birdonthewire Stakes over five and a half furlongs for two-year-olds. A quick glance at the Ultimate Race Summary reveals that, of the eight runners entered that have already raced, all but two have run styles of "E" or "EP" leading one to believe that this may set up for a closer. The best of the two late runners appears to be #7 PEACE AT DAWN who is 4/1 on the morning line. Ranked fourth on Prime Power, Peace At Dawn is top on the Speed Last Race, Back Speed and Late Pace Last Race categories in the Ultimate Race Summary. The other closer, #1 LUCAS BRADY must also be given consideration being ranked second on ACL, or Average Competitive Level, and at 15/1 on the morning line may offer value.
Race 7. In the My Dear Girl Stakes the fillies Joanie's Catch, Winsockie and Sweetlalabye are the top contenders on Prime Power and figure to be the first three favorites. In interesting alternative with a morning line of 8/1 maybe the William White-trained #5 TILLIE THE TIGRESS. The daughter of Tiger Ridge disappointed last time out in a stakes race but will add blinkers today -- a situation in which White has been winning at a rate of 27 percent with a high ROI. Tillie The Tigress will also get a rider change to Manuel Cruz who, according to the statistics in the Ultimate Past Performances, wins at 32 percent when riding horses trained by White.
Race 8. The Calder Oaks has drawn a field of ten and one to consider may be #7 CHARY whose morning line odds are 6/1. A winner of one of her three turf starts, Chary's Speed Rating of 89 and "E2" Pace Rating of 87 in her second from last start are superior to any others in the field. While Christophe Clement's European import, Providanza may be hard to beat, Chary is likely to offer better value.
Race 9. The lone runner in the In Reality Stakes for two-year-olds with a run style of "E" is #2 WHAT A PRINCE who is 8/1 on the morning line. In addition What A Prince's E1 and E2 Pace Ratings are clearly higher than those of any other runners in the field suggesting he may be alone on an uncontested lead.
Race 10. Sal The Barber is the solid favorite and the clear Prime Power pick for the Calder Derby. However, value seekers might want to consider #10 TEMO'S DREAM (8/1) who is the third top on the Prime Power and top on the Speed Last Race and Late Pace Last Race categories in the Ultimate Summary.
Race 11. Although trainer William Kaplan is winless in his last 34 tries with runners in graded stakes his #4 DREAM MAESTO may be worth a look for value seekers. At 12/1 on the morning line, Dream Maestro is fourth ranked on Prime Power but top on the Back Speed category and a close second on ACL (Average Competitive Level).
Race 12. The final stakes of the day is the Cassidy Stakes. Slavic Princess and Rosebud's Ridge figure to be the two favorites but are two frontrunners in a race that is loaded with speed. Looking at the Ultimate Race Summary it appears that #10 CRIOLLA BONITA, who is top on Late Pace Last Race, is the only closer in the field. A three length winner of her last race, in which she earned the second highest Speed Last Race rating, Criolla Bonita will be running late and may offer value being 6/1 on the morning line.
Tim Holland 10-16-09.
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