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Brisnet Nuggets at Arlington on Thursday.
Racing returns to Arlington on Thursday and the fourth race on the card has drawn a competitive field of low level claimers. # 2, Helicopter comes off an impressive win and is the morning line favorite and the Brisnet Prime Power pick. Helicopter earned by far his best Bris Speed Rating in that victory but a look at the Bris Race Shapes indicate that he may have been aided by a favorable pace setup. Indeed, the Race Shapes of +13 and +14 tell one that the front runners were running by over two lengths faster than what should have been expected and horses, such as the winner, that were coming from off the pace were at an advantage. Furthermore, the Bris Average Competitive (ACL) column in the Bris Ultimate Past Performances shows that Helicopter will be facing much tougher here than he has ever been competitive with before. Indeed, Helicopter is the bottom ranked runner on the ACL.
Top ranked on ACL is # 5 Star Vector who is fourth on the Prime Power. While his last race may have been visually unimpressive, it was against better and the performance earned him the position on top of the Current Class category in the Ultimate Race Summary. At 12/1 in the morning line Star Vector might offer good value although caution is always advisable with horses taking sizeable drops in class.
While only ranked sixth on the Prime Power and a winner of two of his 38 previous starts, #6 MASS has many positives going for him. He is ranked third on ACL and is top on the Ultimate Summary's category of Average Class Last 3. A glance at the Bris Insider Picks and Power Plays sheet reveals that Mass is coming out of a key race from which three of his opponents have won back. While that race was 53 days ago, this leads to his being a Blue Chip Trainer Play since his handler wins with 30 percent of his runners returning from a similar break. A good recent work from the gate and the addition of blinkers only add to confidence and 8/1 on the morning line looks like value.