The Brisnet Ultimate Performances, packed with statistics can be the key to locating value plays. A few examples are found in Thursday's card at Calder:
Race 2. With six of the entrants in the nine horse field of this one mile claimer having run styles of "E" or "E/P" it may pay to look for a runner that may come from off the pace. The best closer may be #4 PARKY who has a run style of "S". The Marcus Vitali trained colt is ranked second on Prime Power as well as on the Late Pace Last Race category in the Ultimate Past Performances Race Summary. Parky has not raced for 57 days but Vitali wins at a rate of 18 percent with runners coming off this type of break and, with a morning line of 6/1, Parky may prove to be a value bet.
Race 3. Similar to the previous race, this five and a half furlong claimer has attracted many entrants whose run styles suggest they may try to be involved in the early pace. The best late runner here could be #3 POPULAR ACT who is also 6/1 on the morning line. Third highest on Prime Power, Popular Act is top on the Late Pace Last Race category and has the second highest individual late pace (LP) figure.
Race 5. in this mile and a sixteenth optional claimer that is scheduled for the turf the third choice on Prime Power is #9 WHO PLAYS BRAHMS who is 8/1 on the morning line. Top on the Average Class Last 3 and Early Pace Last Race categories in the Ultimate Summary, the three-year-old filly is also ranked best on Average Competitive Level (ACL) and could be a sleeper in this spot.
Tim Holland 10-21-09.