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Brisnet Juvenile Nuggets
By using the statistics found in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, handicappers can uncover nuggets of information on trainers and pedigrees which can often lead to lucrative payouts.
Thursday, Calder Race 4. Edward Plesa, with a seven percent strike rate, is not known for his winning debutants. However, #5 OUR LAINEY, who is 4/1 on the morning line, is by Yes It's True (SPI 1.40) whose firsters score at 15 percent and whose runners have an average winning distance (AWD) of 6.3 furlongs. In addition, Our Lainey's dam was stakes placed and has a DPI of 2.81 and all three of her previous starters won as juveniles. The filly proved her readiness for her first race last week with a four-furlong work from the gate in 48 2/5 which was the fastest of 78 workers that day at the distance.
Thursday, Arlington Race 2. Peace Rules has one of the highest debutant win rates of any stallion at 21 percent. His daughter #5 SPEAK PEACE has recorded a string of decent works, including two bullets, since early June and is a half-sister to one two-year-old winner. Her trainer, Percy Scherbenske has been winning with just 9 percent of his first time starters but has a positive ROI and, at 8/1 on the morning line, Speak Peace may provide value.
Thursday, Calder Race 8. West Acre is also one of the top first-time sires around with his runners winning 22 percent of their debuts. #5 BARNIE'S BULLET (8/1) will be making his second start here, but his first run was something of a throwout since he lost much of his chance through a poor break. After his debut, Barnie's Bullet has worked well from the gate at Calder and blinkers are added.
Friday, Arlington Race 3. #6 WESTERN PEACE (4/1) is another debuting daughter of Peace Rules, this one trained by Michael Stidham whose success rate with first-time starters is an impressive 22 percent. This filly has works stretching back to May and is a half-sister to four runners that won as two-year-olds.
Friday, Arlington Race 5. As a first season sire Quest has been represented by just six runners to date. However, two of these won first time out with one returning more than $40 and, at 10/1 on the morning line, #3 SHARKETTE may be worth a look. A half-sister to one winner, Sharkette has just four average looking works published for her trainer, Steve Asmussen. However, firsters sent out by Asmussen win 18 percent of the time and he has a knack of getting horses ready to run with apparently light training.
Tim Holland 9-2-09.
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