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Brisnet insights for Churchill's Thursday night guaranteed Pick Four.
On the last of the three popular night cards at Churchill a $100,000 guaranteed Pick Four is offered on races four through seven.
Race 4. The first leg is a competitive maiden claimer going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. # 6, Insider has not raced since finishing second to Elusive Bluff at Belmont last September but has posted some solid recent works. Elusive Bluff went on to win the Pilgrim Breeders' Cup S. (G3) in his next start and in Insider's previous start he was fourth behind the future stakes winners Tres Borraches and Take The Points. Insider has the best Brisnet E2 Pace Figures in the race and trainer Al Stall wins at 11 percent with runners returning from a 90 day plus layoffs according to the statistics found in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances. # 7 Cape Doctor showed little when well bet here in a maiden special weight in May but was compromised that day by a wide post. Well-bred, being by Dynaformer who owns a SPI of 2.57, Cape Doctor's dam has a DPI of 3.31 which is explained, after further research on the American Produce Records CD-ROM, by her also being the dam of Western Ransom who won the Hilltop S. and placed second in the Regret S. (G3).
Also worthy of serious consideration in the first leg is #8, Atomic Force who is another son of Dynaformer and whose dam is a half-sister to the grade one placed Cosmonaut. #13, Little Lizard and #14, Sarvatha, from the in form barns of John Glenney and Michael Maker respectively and who both own top grass pedigrees, should not be ignored if they draw into the race.
Race 5. Leg two is a seriously contentious maiden claimer for two-year-olds and the best strategy may be to "go deep". The top four Prime Power picks (#5, Green N Goldie, #1, Bottle Of Smoke, #9, Half Crafty and #12, Lil Richie) should be included along with several longshots. # 3, Eurosteel is trained by Jason Cook who wins with 14 percent of his debutants; # 7, Dabeed was bet to favoritism in a race from which the first and third finishers won their next outings, and is a Blue Chip Trainer Play as found on the Insider Picks and Power Play sheet since trainer Ken McPeek wins with 26 percent of his runners making their second start; # 10, Canook is the mount of leading rider Julien Leparoux and from the in form barn of Greg Foley (25 percent at the meet). Finally, # 4, Real Me In, at 20/1 in the morning line may be a sleeper. Bred for speed being by the fast Richter Scale and out of Imallzealedup who won four races including a stakes as a two-year-old, Real Me In is trained by Herbert Jones, a veteren trainer who has won with three of his last 11 first time starters.
Race 6. The third leg is a one mile maiden on the turf for fillies and mares. # 8, La Milanesa, who cost $635,000 as a yearling, is a half-sister to the multiple graded winner and millionaire Bowman's Band. After showing decent form against winners in big fields in France, La Milanesa ran well when disputing the pace before finishing fourth in her American debut on the main track. She will be fitter for that effort and may appreciate the switch back to turf. # 7, Cruis'nthebridle also has a good pedigree being a half-sister to the grade one placed Belterra and by Unbridled's Song. She ran on well in her debut and trainer Michael Maker wins at 21 percent with his second time starters. Julien Leparoux will ride, completing a trainer/jockey combo that has been winning at a rate of 43 percent.
Race 7. The final leg is the shortest field in the sequence with six entered. For an affordable ticket one really needs a single selection in one race and # 6 Catera may be a good candidate. Ranked over seven points clear of her rivals on Prime Power, Catera has been consistent winning three, and being in the money seven times in her nine starts and was most recently second in a stakes at Will Rogers Downs. Being designated an E/P running style in the Ultimate Past Performances suggests that Catena is most comfortable running form just off the early pace. However her superior Pace (E1 and E2) figures lead one to believe that she will be in hand rating behind the probable leader Connect To Me (E type runner) and thus have plenty left for the finish. The Steve Asmussen trained filly has trained well and has a beautiful pedigree being a half-sister to Futurity S. (G1) winner Cuvee and Will He Shine who won the True North S. (G2).
Leg 1: 6,7,8
Leg 2: 1,3,4,5,7,9,10,12
Leg 3: 7,8
Leg 4: 6
Tim Holland 7-1-09.