Brisnet Current Class Ratings.
Among the many useful statistics found in the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances are the Current Class Ratings which appear in the Race Summary section. This is a rating based on the horse's most recent starts with more emphasis placed on the most recent races at, or near, today's distance and surface.
A look at the last five days of racing at Calder illustrates how useful these ratings can be.
Overall there were 50 races run at Calder during last week's racing from Thursday through Monday but in 16 of these events half, or more, of the runners did not qualify for a Current Class rating. In the remaining 34 races the top ranked horse on current class won on 10 occasions, for a respectable win rate of 29 percent.
In addition to the 10 winners that were top on Current Class there were 12 more that were ranked second of third which made a total of 22 winners from 34 races that were amongst the top three. This win rate of 65 percent more or less equals the rate that one of the first three betting choices will win at over a long period of time. However, this takes on more importance when one considers that the winners ranked in the top three on Current Class included the $37.20 winner Stacy On The Wire on Friday and Northern Academy who returned $22.80 when scoring on Saturday.
A win wager on all the top ranked runners on Current Class would have made a slight loss over the 34 races, but value was to be found including the second and third ranked horses in exotic wagering. Indeed, keying exactas using the top with the second and third ranked runners would have produced four successful bets including a $51 payoff generated by Many Crows and Marnhoot who finished first and second in the 9th race on Friday. For an overall stake of $136 the four winning exactas returned $156.20 for a profit of $20.20, or a decent 15 percent.
With several of the second ranked runners on Current Class winning at good odds, (such as the afore mentioned Stacy On The Wire), even more value was found by boxing the top two selection in exactas. This would have produced seven winning tickets for a return of $275.20, which was a profit of $139.20 for a stake of $136 -- an over 100 percent return.
An exacta box using the top three ranked horses on Current Class produced an extremely healthy 50 percent profit but this paled in comparison to the outcome of boxing these same horses in trifectas. Indeed, the top three selections filled out the trifecta on four occasions and included payouts of $420.40 from the fourth race of Friday and $320.00 generated by the first three home in the fourth on Monday. The four winning plays created a profit of $616.80 for a total stake of $408 -- a return of over 150 percent.
Tim Holland 10-13-09.
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