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Brisnet Calder Juvenile Stakes Preview.
Calder will stage six stake races for two-year-olds on Saturday with plentiful betting opportunities. With the help of the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances some angles can be uncovered.
Race 7. Catcharisingstar Stakes. The morning line favorite in this five furlong event on the turf for fillies is the Wesley Ward trained Girl Bar, who is also entered in the Fasig Tipton Turf Dash Stakes later in the afternoon. However, the Prime Power selection is #8 MISS DELITE (6/1) who will make her turf debut and first start in 49 days. Being by Exchange Rate, whose runners trying the turf for the first time win at a respectable rate of 13 percent, the switch to the grass should not be a problem. Her trainer, Pablo Andrade wins at 14 percent with his first time turf runners and at 13 percent off this length of a layoff. There are six fillies entered with runstyles in the Ultimate Past Performances that are rated "E", or need the lead types, so this should set up well for Miss Delite whose runstyle of "E/P 4" denotes that she is most comfortable coming from just off the pace.
Race8. Seacliff S. The Prime Power Pick and morning line favorite is #4 HEAR YE HE YE (6/5) who is coming off a seven and a quarter length maiden special weight victory over six furlongs. The grey colt is also ranked top on the Speed Last Race, Early Pace Last Race and Late Pace Last Race categories in the Ultimate Race Summary. Like all the runners in this race, Hear Ye Hear Ye will be attempting a mile for the first time. However, and while the average winning distance (AWD) of his sire's runners is a short 5.6 furlongs, he should receive stamina from his damsire, Unbridled's Song whose AWD is 7.2 furlongs.
Race 9. Florida Stallion Susan's Girl Stakes. The two morning line and Prime Power choices in this seven furlong event are Sweetlalabye and Myakka City who finished first and third in the Desert Vixen S. here earlier in the month. Better value may be found via the maiden #7 WINSOCKIE (8/1). The filly is trained by Martin Wolfson who wins at 32 percent in non graded stakes and at 30 percent with second time starters with a positive ROI in both categories. Additionally, Winsockie's sire Trippi owns the highest SPI in the race at 1.44.
Race 10. Lindsay Frolic Stakes. Top on Prime Power for this race is #6 SEATTLE ZIP (3/1). A closing second in her only start Seattle Zip also ranks top on the Speed Last Race, Average Class Last 3 and Early Pace Last Race categories in the Ultimate Summary. With her sire and damsire having SPIs of 1.68 and 5.52 she has the best pedigree in the race and her trainer, Antonio Cioffi wins with 21 percent of his runners making their second start.
Race 11. Fasig Tipton Turf Dash. If Wesley Ward decides to run Girl Bar against the colts in this turf sprint she should not be ignored, but has drawn a tough outside post . A safer bet maybe #6 CRUZIN WITH CASH (6/1) whose superior pace (E1 and E2) ratings suggest that he will dominate this field from the start. The colt is trained by David Vivian who has been winning with 31 percent of his runners in non-graded stakes, and has been successful in eight of his last 16 tries with horses handled by today's rider, Eduardo Nunez.
Race 12. Florida Stallion Affirmed S. In the shortest field of the six stakes, the morning line choice and Prime Power pick is #4 JACKSON BEND (6/5) who will be bidding to win his third stakes in a row. While Mr. Green owns superior E1 and E2 ratings, Jackson Bend's late pace (LP) figures suggest that he can confirm his superiority over that rival who he has already beaten twice, especially over this longer distance.
Tim Holland 8-28-09.
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