In this blog on Monday a look back at last week's results at Arlington using the Bris Class Ratings brought some favorable results. This warrants a look ahead to the action at Arlington on Thursday and Friday.
Among the many unique features provided by Brisnet.com are the Class Ratings found in the Ultimate Past Performances.
"The Class Ratings are based on the premise that a horse's performance in any given race can be accurately eguated by considering the horses which the individual has beaten; those that have beaten him; and by the margins involved. Final time is not a factor used in calculating the ratings.
Thus, the Class Ratings provide a convenient means for comparing the relative merits of each horse's recent races to that of it's competitors". *
*Reproduced from the Bris Race & Class Ratings F.A.Q found in the Brisnet.com Library.
As noted on Monday, if one bet on any runner that was ranked in the top three in the Average Class Last 3 category in the Ultimate Race Summary that was 5/1 or higher one would have made a tidy profit on last weeks racing at Arlington.
Here are the runners that may offer value that are ranked in the top three in the Average Class Last 3 rankings for Thursday and Friday at Arlington.
Thursday, Race1. By taking a quick glance at the Ultimate Past Performances one would assume that #3, Tactition, who finished ninth in a Maiden Special Weight would have a higher Class Rating than #5, Fair Oak who filled the same position in a $40,000 Maiden Claimer. However, that is not the case as #5 FAIR OAK is ranked top on the Average Class Last 3 category. Fair Oak is also picked top on the Brisnet Prime Power and at 8/1 on the morning line may offer value. #7, RIDE COWBOY RIDE is third top ranked on the Average Class Last 3 and is also 8/1 on the morning line.
Thursday, Race 5. In this Maiden Claimer on the turf #1, TACTICS SCHOOL is ranked third on Average Class Last 3 and is pegged at 12/1 on the morning line. Second on the Prime Power, Tactics School has good tactical speed and an advantageous inside post.
Thursday, Race 7. #7, SHESA BUCKER (8/1 on the morning line) is third on the Average Class Last 3. The two-year-old showed good speed when finishing third in her debut at Churchill and improvement may see her breaking her maiden here.
Thursday, Race 9. #6, LUMEN has failed to break her maiden while hitting the board on five occasions. Being top on the Average Class Last 3, as well as the top Prime Power pick, suggests that he may have found a field he can beat and 8/1 on the morning line hints at value.
Friday, Race 3. In this mile on the turf claimer, #4, BACK ALLEY TALES is third top ranked on Average Class Last 3 while 8/1 on the morning line. Back Alley Tales will make his third start off a layoff and his second start on the grass, situations in which his trainer, Walter Bindner wins at rates of 17 and 21 percent respectively.
Friday, Race 5. #4, BLUE KNIGHT (8/1 on the morning line) has been beaten by a neck in both of his last two starts. Being top on the Average Class Last 3 might lead one to believe that the slight drop in class will give him hte edge today.
Friday, Race 8. The longest morning line price of any horse on Thursday and Friday that is top ranked on Average Class Last 3 at Arlington is #6, BERNT TO RUN at 15/1. Having little early pace but with plenty of early speed entered, Bernt To Run will be coming with a late run.
Friday, Race 10. #6, SPUNK has made five starts without hitting the board but drops in class here and is ranked third on the Average Class Last 3. His trainer, Paul McGee wins with 21 percent of his runners dropping one class and 8/1 on hte morning line may represent value.
Tim Holland 7-22-09.