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Bris Class Ratings.
Among the many unique features provided by Brisnet.com are the Class Ratings found in the Ultimate Past Performances.
"The Class Ratings are based on the premise that a horse's performance in any given race can be accurately eguated by considering the horses which the individual has beaten; those that have beaten him; and by the margins involved. Final time is not a factor used in calculating the ratings.
Thus, the Class Ratings provide a convenient means for comparing the relative merits of each horse's recent races to that of it's competitors". *
While final times and internal fractions are very important factors in handicapping dirt races, on synthetic and turf surfaces, class, or the relative merits of one horse versus another, becomes maybe as, if not more, relevant.
With Arlington hosting full fields of runners in both their Polytrack and turf races, the Class Rating is a useful tool in their races for handicappers looking for hidden value. While it should be stressed that using one statistic on it's own can sometimes be misleading, a quick and easy means to sum up a runner's recent class is found in the "Average Class Last 3" category in the Ultimate Past Performances Race Summary.
In all there were 47 races run on the past five days at Arlington. Of these 47 races, 15 were won by the post time favorite for a near normal 32 percent win rate. The top ranked horse in the "Average Class Last 3" category was victorious in 12 of these 47 races (26 percent) but at a much higher average mutual price. Furthermore, the second and third Average Class Last 3 choices won 18 of the races while the second and third public picks took 14. Overall 29 of the races were won by runners that were the first three favorites, However, 30 of the winners were among the top three picks on Average Class Last 3 -- again at much bigger odds.
The top ranked winners in the Average Class Last 3 category over the five days included Peach Brew who won the Arlington Oaks on Saturday at odds of 8.40/1 and Seven Mile Bridge and Letsgetitonmon who each returned $13.20 when winning the ninth race on Wednesday and the sixth on Thursday respectively.
Winners that were ranked second or third on the Average Class Last 3 included Wayoff, who returned $18.00 when scoring in the fourth race on Sunday; the 10.40/1 winner Frosty Melody on Thursday's card and Kayla Do who paid $33.80 in the Saturday finale.
These longer priced winners prove that value can be found by looking horses that are offered at a decent price but are not necessarily ranked first by Average Class Last 3. Indeed, there were 61 runners at odds of 5/1 and over that were in the top three on the Average Class Last 3 for a total stake, to $2, of $122.00. Eight of these won returning $151.00 for a profit of $29.00, or 24 percent.
Tim Holland 7-20-09.
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